Brazil has the fourth highest unemployment rate in the world, indicating a ranking with 44 countries | Economie

The survey shows that unemployment in Brazil is more than double the global average and also worst among members of the G20 (the group that includes the 19 richest countries in the world and the European Union) who have already released figures for August or September.

a Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 13.2% in the quarter ending in Augustto 13.7 million workers, according to the latest survey published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Before the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate was less than 12%, and jumped to 14.7% in the first quarter of 2021.

According to the ranking, only Costa Rica, Spain and Greece in August recorded a higher unemployment rate than that of Brazil. See the table below:

Of the countries that make up the G20, only 3 have yet to release official unemployment figures for the third quarter: South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Argentina.

In the group of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in September, and is now 0.5 percentage point above the pre-pandemic level in February last year (5.3%). In the eurozone, the rate was 7.4% in Septemberto the pre-pandemic level. In the United States, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, Compared to 5.2% in August.

“This is a clear picture of how much Brazil is losing in job creation. Among these 44 countries are direct competitors and other emerging countries like Singapore, Korea and Mexico. In these countries, the unemployment rate is 4%, 5%, at the maximum,” he says Chief Economist at Austin Rating, Alex Agostini.

The economist explains that the high unemployment rates in Brazil are mainly explained by a long period of low growth and historical structural problems in the Brazilian economy such as low productivity. He points out, however, that the labor market recovery has slowed in recent months before deteriorating expectationsEspecially with regard to inflation and GDP growth in 2022.

“In 2021 we expected a recovery and a better outlook, but what we’re seeing is, unfortunately, Brazil is growing at a much lower average than the emerging countries average as well as the global average,” he says.

Exacerbation of expectations and expectations for unemployment

An earlier survey by Austin Rating, based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), showed that Brazil had the 21st worst unemployment rate in the world in 2020, ranked 111 countries.

a The average unemployment rate in Brazil last year was 13.5%, the highest in this series that started in 2012. In 2019, it was 11.9%.

The International Monetary Fund projects an average rate of 13.8% in 2021, which would see the country finish the year with the 14th worst unemployment rate in the world. But given the slowdown in the Brazilian economy, Brazil’s position in the global ranking may deteriorate further.

“Brazil should grow at a lower rate than forecast and economists are even talking about a recession in 2022, which could worsen Brazil’s position in the unemployment rating. For example, we are very close to Greece, which is improving the pace of economic growth every year,” Agustini says.

The financial market has lowered its GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecast for this year, from 4.93% to 4.88%, below the global average, according to The latest survey focused on the central bank. For 2022, the median forecast of analysts rose from 1% to 0.93%. actually The government expects an increase of 5.3% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022.

to andGlobal average growth projected between 5.5% and 6% in 2021, and between 4.5% and 5% in 2022, according to projections by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund. The performance projected by the International Monetary Fund for the Brazilian economy in 2022 puts the country in The last place among the G20 countries.

Obstacles to reducing unemployment

Although the unemployment rate has decreased in recent months, There has been a recovery in the labor market with low-quality vacancies, with a few hours of work and A record drop in the average income of the working population.

The unemployment rate has also been pressured by more people who are depressed or out of the labor market, who have begun to look for formal or even informal work opportunity, amid the reopening of the economy and the termination of government assistance programs launched during the pandemic.

a The opening of official positions in the country slowed down in September compared to AugustAccording to the data of the general register of workers and the unemployed (imprisoned).

The strongest recovery in the labor market continues to depend on a sustainable recovery and increased optimism on the part of employers.

Agustini warns that “a more disappointing 2022 scenario develops in terms of economic growth and this could have a negative impact on employment, delaying an older generation and job vacancies.” “The political environment continues to disrupt and negatively affect the economy, and we have a financial environment that does not provide security for the investor.”

From a financial market perspective, the unemployment rate won’t return to pre-pandemic levels any time soon. For example, Itaú estimates an average rate of 13.1% in 2021, and 12.9% in 2022, mainly due to increased financial uncertainty and the upward trajectory of the prime rate. On the other hand, Austin expects an average unemployment rate of 14% in 2021 and 13.5% next year.