China risks ‘pro-Russian neutrality’ in war – 10/03/2022 – Tatiana Prazeres

I do not envy the work of Chinese diplomats who give a press conference every day at the Foreign Ministry in Beijing. They have struggled to accommodate the country’s conflicting interests into a coherent narrative The war in Ukraine.

Beijing Adheres to the principle of territorial integritywhich is valid for Ukraine — but also applies China itself in relation to TaiwanBecause, after all, the one-state principle is a sacred principle. At the same time, diplomatic spokespersons at all costs avoid using the word invasion of what is happening in Eastern Europe, recalling the “rock-solid” partnership with Russia.

Faced with difficult questions about how to reconcile the two positions, they emphasized the responsibilities of NATO and the United States toward the crisis, and reiterated criticisms of military alliances and a Cold War mentality.

For the most persistent questions, they resort to the re-questioning technique: What about the United States in Afghanistan? And in Iraq? it’s the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade In the 1990’s? Despite their legitimacy, provocations do not solve the problem of the moment: China’s position on the war in Ukraine.

Different political goals push the Chinese position in opposite directions. To balance multiple interests, Beijing has chosen to claim neutrality – what it has termed pro-Russian neutrality. The irony reflects the tensions of the Chinese position itself.

Such sympathetic neutrality on the part carries risks, and here I highlight one of them.

The deterioration of relations between China and Europe is serious. If the war Closer to MoscowIt also strengthens relations between Europeans and Americans, as well as breathing new life into NATO. The global dynamic, which is at odds with the European Union and the United States on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other, is highly problematic for Beijing’s interests. China cannot alienate Europe – which, incidentally, was the backdrop to Xi’s video conference with Macron and Schulz last Tuesday.

The European position, at present, becomes even more important in the geopolitical reconfiguration that is taking shape. And China’s position on the war is not good there. In addition to Brutal images of conflict On television and on European networks, Europeans watch a A wave of 2 million Ukrainian refugees in its territory. Even if Beijing’s support for Russia is conservative, it has more impact on Europe than anywhere else. Globally, and especially in the European Union, China’s position affects its reputation, with the potential for significant geopolitical effects.

This scenario changes if China plays a mediating role in the conflict. Beijing wins if today’s relative distance allows it to facilitate diplomatic understanding, if it works to bring Putin out of isolation and enable an end to hostilities. For a country like China, faced with such a conflict, neutrality either serves a good cause or can harm its interests.

If it is certain that China can reap situational gains, the possibility that the war will lead to a geopolitical reconfiguration that turns out to be unfavorable to the country must be factored into the final balance. As the authorities make their calculations and seek to reconcile the various goals, there is plenty of work for those who need to communicate Beijing’s position to the world.

Current link: Did you like this text? A subscriber can unlock five free accesses to any link per day. Just click the blue F button below.