The end of the war passes by chance with the consent of “two Ukrainians” and the satisfaction of Putin

The The war in Ukraine She’s about to turn four months old on July 24. The invasion, described by Vladimir Putin as a “special military operation,” began in February and has already left thousands dead, millions of refugees and billions of dollars in losses. As a result, the West, both financially and diplomatically, is looking for ways to get Russia out of Ukrainian territory.

For the economist Igor Lusina, a doctor in international relations from the University of Lisbon, there is an opportunity to divide the Ukrainian lands as a way to end the conflict.

“Unfortunately, the possibility of two or more Ukrainians is a reality, and I think we’ll bring back some of what we saw in North Korea and especially in the division of Germany,” he explains.

On the other hand, Thomas Ferdinand Heye, Professor at Inest (Institute for Strategic Studies) at UFF (Fluminense Federal University), says he believes that invading only part of Ukraine would not be satisfactory for Putin, although no one knows exactly what the real goals are. for the Russian leader.

“[A divisão] It could even immediately reduce or stop hostilities, but the conflict would not be resolved. It will remain frozen or dormant until it hatches again.”

The UFF professor says that with “two Ukrainians,” Russian verbs have a chance of being considered commonplace. “The greatest danger is to normalize the absurdity of the crime committed by Russia by invading a sovereign state and ending its territorial integrity. For Ukrainians, there can only be one Ukraine,” he adds.

It is important to remember that in Ukraine there are “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Lugansk, which appeared in the first half of 2014 after protests by the pro-Western opposition in Ukraine and a change of leadership in Kyiv. Currently, these breakaway regions include about a third of Donbass and the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, the capitals of the regions of the same name.

Consequences of “Two Ukrainians”

Although it is believed that the fragmentation of Ukrainian territory could happen soon, Lucina, of the University of Lisbon, does not believe that separating the country would be purposeful, because although this could end the conflict, it would lead to the division of families, businesses and traditions.

“Ukrainian culture, even if it has more or less influence than Russia or Europe. We will divide the society that has already become official. Therefore, I think this would be a very negative example within the country,” he says.

Lusina also explains that the fragmentation of Ukraine would create an abyss of social inequality, since the western or northern side would have significant support for reconstruction from the EU, while the south or east would be under the tutelage and influence of Russia, without much financial support and operational capacity.

Another question is how recognition of other countries will occur in connection with the existence of “two Ukrainians”. According to Lucena, the Ukrainian territory is currently recognized by all states and not by Russia, which may change with fragmentation.

“There is no vision that they will actually be recognized, so there will be no trade agreements, no international financing, no representation of the leaders. All this will leave this part of the supposed new Ukraine or eastern Ukraine, the Donbas region, perhaps as a stateless region. From an international point of view. for decisions and negotiations,” says the doctor from the Portuguese university.

In Hay’s opinion, secession will not be fully accepted by other nations: “[Um país dividido] It will be strongly rejected by various powers on the international arena and some developing countries.”

But the UFF professor stresses that, in quantitative terms, Russia has the support or at least the sympathy of more countries, which makes the creation of “Two Ukrainians” end up being recognized by a large part of the international community – even amid protests and the support of world powers .

* Trainee in R7Under the supervision of Raphael Hakim