Brazil’s accelerated soybean planting pressure awards will intensify competition with the United States

Planting Soy At the fastest pace in history Brazil It is pressing for awards in ports in January and especially February, in anticipation of a harvest that will intensify competition between Brazilians and North Americans in early 2022. Reuters.

Consulting data Crops & Market The extra charge for shipping oilseeds to the Port of Paranagua (PR) is 130 cents a bushel in January and 50 cents a bushel in February.

A year ago, when there was a delay in starting the harvest due to lack of rain, there was no premium reference for January and February, said Safras analyst Luis Fernando Roque.

“Gifts for early 2022 coincide with the January harvest and carry stock market. It was one year from the curve last year, and higher premiums indicate that stocks are lower and there will be a shortage of harvest in January, ”he explained.

He also said that premiums in Brazil regarding futures deals on the Chicago Stock Exchange are more competitive than soybeans. United States For February shipments.

In the same vein, the consulting analyst IHS Market Vittor Belasco said the chances of being the largest producer and exporter of soybeans globally are high because it was planted faster than last year and the area has increased.

“The very stable premiums for these first two months show this market outlook,” he said.

Anderson Calvao, director of consulting firm Celeres, pointed out that buyers paid more for producers who first harvested oilseeds, but by 2021/22, many farmers will be harvesting in the first half of January. This justifies the fall in the value of premiums compared to the previous cycle.

Analyst at Safras & Mercado also said that early harvest premiums should bring down premiums, but also bring down soybean prices.

“We look forward to the season to enter the crop, which naturally always makes us feel premiums and prices,” he said.

“The Chinese will definitely buy some of our soybeans in January … and if they know that a larger quantity is coming and there will be a record harvest of more than 140 million tonnes, prices will fall soon.”

Brazil vs USA

According to Rock, exports for the first month of 2022 are likely to “fight” Brazil ahead of its main rival in the international soy trade, the United States.

North Americans are currently in the harvest and there will be even more business flow early next year.

“But in terms of premiums, the US value for February in the Gulf today is 60 to 67 cents a bushel, so ours is precisely better than the previous crop,” the analyst said.

Calvao of Céleres, with the earlier arrival of soybeans, also draws attention to the potential for traffic disruptions in Brazil.

“As January is still a rainy month, it may bring some logistics problem. Due to such weather, ports may be shut down and exports delayed,” he said.

Climate warning

At the last harvest, the rains came heavily during the harvest, and the work was delayed – which had an effect on the second corn crop, which was often best planted outside the window.

For 2021/22, Somar Celso Oliveira’s meteorologist said it was still too early to nail the forecasts, but that climate samples indicated that it would rain heavily early next year, but had accumulated in the south.

“I think Mato Grosso (The first state to harvest soy in the year), I don’t care. The difference in this crop is that planting was very fast, so when it rains heavily, when it comes, corn and cotton are already established and soybeans are harvested, ”he said.

“Looking at what happened this year, the parana was under water (at harvest time) and forecasts for the coming months show this possibility again.”