The progression of inflation, the highly unstable political scenario, the government’s indications that it will not comply with the spending cap rule and the possibility of a recession in 2022 are symptoms that have already negatively affected the financial market. In October, Brazilian companies were listed in Ibovespa 234.6 billion Brazilian reals lost in value to the 26th place, according to a survey conducted by “Econometrica”, a financial information platform, conducted at the request of UOL.
Another factor that shows the scenario deteriorating is the year-to-date data. If in January the value of Brazilian companies was 4.948 trillion reais, now this value is 4.338 trillion reais, a decrease of nearly 610 billion reais. In other words, 38.4% of the consumption recorded in 2021 occurred just in the last month. To help investors find opportunities in the stock market in light of the crisis and increase the attractiveness of fixed income products, UOL I spoke to market analysts. See what they said.
Who won and who lost in October?
according to economicsLooking at the stock price, the list of companies that gained the most market capitalization in October has Lojas Americanas and BB Seguridade, peterio, br energies, CespAnd PetrobrasAnd phone Brazil, gerdaw and America.
What are the opportunities available in the stock market?
Analysts believe this is a good time for companies that are considered defensive, such as those in the export, energy and oil companies.
For the person responsible for the equity strategy of the AZ manager researchAnd William wangAnd peterio The Petrobras have good opportunities. The advantage of the first, compared to the second, is not to risk possible interference by the government.
“We love Petrobras because of the limited show scenario [de petróleo no mundo]. But it is a risk. From a social point of view, I do not know the maximum population if the price of a barrel continues to rise.” wang.
Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Palm/FGV) indicates that the worsening water crisis, which led to higher electricity prices, and increases in the price of a barrel of oil led to a 10.25% increase in the IPCA in the past 12 months to September.
In case peterioThe prospect of winning bids for the Al-Bakora and Al-Bakora oil fields may give new gas production and stock prices.
wang He also points to BB Seguridade, the insurance company at Banco do Brasil, as an opportunity, as the company benefits from increased interest rates.
Acquisition of electrical papers Cesp It was also evaluated as positive by the specialist. In addition to the rise in energy prices due to water scarcity, the company revealed a related fact in which it said that the Futurantem Group and the Canadian Fund CPPIB, its observers, intend to consolidate their energy assets into a new company.
In portfolio recommendations tumors Investments show Card Verification Code (CVC) And Betz, even with a scenario that is considered more negative for retail and tourism.
“We’re seeing a better retail operational moment than the market is priced right now,” he says. elephant Soares, Head of Equity Analysis at tumors.
me and gerdaw It can benefit from revenue in dollars, notes Enrico Cozulino, an analyst at Levante Ideias Investimentos.
“a gerdaw The highest commodity level (steel) was browsed, with about 20% of EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) in the United States, where the government infrastructure package and economic recovery are in favor of the company,” he says.
Sectors be careful
Analysts believe that there are some sectors that investors should consider carefully and carefully before investing. This is exactly the case for tour operators, airlines and retailers.
In the case of Azul and Gol, the pressure on the price fuel, says a market expert at Instructs Investments, Rodrigo Crespi.
On the other hand, there is pent-up demand for travel, and resumption of activities can favor businesses.
“There was a return of flights to Orlando, Florida (USA), which is beneficial for Azul, which ended Arbitrage The issue of costs,” he says.
he thinks that Card Verification Code (CVC) It is seen as more resilient because of the hospitality sector. It can be preferred to events like final Editor’s Cup, scheduled for November in Montevideo, Uruguay, and rock in rio, confirmed in September 2022.
Retailers such as Lojas Americanas should face more difficulties due to lower Brazilian incomes and inflation.
“Retail has suffered a lot more than the stock market,” says Enrico. “It’s a high beta stock, meaning if the stock market goes down, it goes down a lot more. There’s a whole connection between retail and the local scenario.” Cozulinofrom Levante.
Greater competition between e-commerce companies and the entry of new companies into the Brazilian market such as Amazon and more recently, Shopee NS Ali Baba, can also affect both Lojas Americanas and Louisa Stores.
“You can’t say Amazon came here to play,” he says. “You could burn a few billion dollars and it wouldn’t make any difference.” wangYes, from the ground up research.
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