December 1, 2023
20.05.2020.supermercado rio de janeiro 0520203149 1

Consumer confidence in Brazil and the United States is high on the agenda

Two days before Christmas Eve, the agenda of economic indicators in Brazil and abroad brings some highlights. Today, the most relevant item on the list is the Consumer Confidence Index, released by the FGV (Getúlio Vargas Foundation) at 8am and has been deteriorating in recent months.

Brazilian consumers have been losing hope since August. The movement was started due to concerns about the state of the economy. Then it spread to expectations about the future.

In November, optimism was so low that it reached its lowest level since April, when Brazil set a record for Covit-19 deaths in the same month. The worst situation was in all income groups, with the exception of households earning between R $ 4,800 and R $ 9,600 per month. In December, the situation should be worse.

One of the main reasons for low confidence is that consumers are concerned about their finances, and this has not improved. Late last month, the National Chamber of Commerce showed that for the first time since February, home defaults began to grow again. He also pointed out that the debt of the population has been increasing for the 12th consecutive month.

With this comes an increase in the base interest rate – making financing more expensive – and inflation of more than 10% per annum – which reduces the purchasing power of workers – and despite the employment situation it is difficult to give hope. Began to improve.

Low consumer confidence suggests low demand, which is generally negative for the economy, but more dependent on essentials, especially for retail companies. However, due to high interest rates the market is already operating with distrustful opportunities for these companies.

In the afternoon, the market followed the release of the monthly public debt report by the National Treasury at 2:30 p.m.

U.S. GDP and oil stocks

Abroad, at 12:00, data on consumer confidence will be released, but not in the United States. There, optimism is also falling, reflecting fears of high inflation and an increase in Govt-19 cases.

About 146,000 new cases are registered a day in the country. For comparative purposes, Brazil currently registers about 3,500 new cases per day.

At 10:30 am, the third and final revision of the GDP (GDP) data for the third quarter of the United States is released. Analysts asked Reuters Is expected to rise 2.1%.

Shortly afterwards, at 12:30 pm, the American DoE (Department of Energy) reported oil stocks that had accumulated until December 17th. This number is carefully monitored because it can change the price Goods And with Petrobras prices.