December 9, 2022
Corinthians and Fluminense have a 98% chance of going to the Libertadores in the Espaião Statico |  Statistical spy

Corinthians and Fluminense have a 98% chance of going to the Libertadores in the Espaião Statico | Statistical spy

although Corinthians two points more than Fluminense In the ranking, statistically, it is the level of the next opponents and the conditions of the order that make the current chances of the opponent Fluminense slightly larger. For example, file Corinthians travels to his face Curitiba And the flamingoand strong principles, while Fluminense They will face away from home, as well as their home CorinthiansHey Bragantino And Ciara, one of the worst hosts in the competition.

Roger Guedes celebrates the goal he scored in the Classics win against Santos – Photo: Rodrigo Coca/AG. Corinthians

In partnership with economist Bruno Imazumi, we have analyzed all shots scored by Espião Statístico in 3,747 matches in Brazil since the 2013 edition, which serves as an indicator to measure the current productivity of teams in attack and defense based on goal predictions (xG), an internationally standardized measure. The data helps in calculating each team’s chances of winning the remaining matches, and running 10,000 simulations for each game played, resulting in the percentages in the table below. The methodology used is explained at the end of the text.

The table below shows each team’s chances of finishing Brazil in the top five and in the top seven, ensuring direct participation in the group stage or in the classification stages, respectively, because flamingoFinishing third in the Brazilian Championship, he has already secured his presence in the group stage of the continental competition by being the Copa do Brasil champion. Qualified up to Libertadores, chance flamingo Brazil’s finish in the top five is 98.2%, which the table below shows.

Opportunities to go to Libertadores *

club G-5 . odds G-7 . odds
Palm trees 100% 100%
international 99.7% 100%
flamingo* 98.2% * 100%
Fluminense 76.1% 98.3%
Corinthians 70.6% 97.7%
Atletico MG 35.8% 84.2%
Atlético PR 15.4% 74.3%
Sao Paulo 3.3% 25.5%
America MG 0.7% 11.1%
Energy 0.1% 3.4%
Botafogo 0% 2.2%
saints 0% 1.8%
Goiás 0% 0.9%
Bragantino 0% 0.5%

with a lottery Internacional in 1 to 1 with Curitibafeature Palm trees In the leadership of Braslerao returned to ten points, the chances of the title became 99.31%, while the chances of international To be champion it fell to 0.66%. countdown to Palm trees Confirms winning her eleventh title of the Brazilian Championship.

Title chances in Brazil

club Opportunities
Palm trees 99.31%
international 0.66%
flamingo 0.01%
Fluminense 0.01%
Corinthians 0.01%

a Atlético jo He defeated Ciara 1-0 at home and practically doubled his chances of remaining in the First Division in 2023. Now, the probability of the next Goias team in the first division was 37.6%, which renews the team’s hopes, as the chances of cuiaba Avoid landing dropped to 28%.

a Atlético jo He was 33 points in the standings, only one point behind Ciara and two points less than Ciara Curitiba, teams outside Z-4 ​​are one of Brazil’s worst campaigns. a Atlético jo It is currently ranked 17th.

Chances of staying in the Italian league

club Stay in the premier league
Palm trees 100%
international 100%
flamingo 100%
Fluminense 100%
Corinthians 100%
Atletico MG 100%
Atlético PR 100%
Sao Paulo 100%
America MG 100%
Energy 99.9%
Botafogo 99.9%
saints 99.9%
Bragantino 99.9%
Goiás 99.9%
car 70.8%
Curitiba 61.4%
Atlético jo 37.6%
cuiaba 28.0%
Hawaii 2.4%
youths 0.01%

The chances of the teams to finish the Brazilian League in each position – Photo: Bruno Imaizumi / Espião Estatístico

We present the statistical probabilities based on the parameters of the ‘Goals Expected’ or ‘Goal Expectations’ (xG) model, a standardized measure in data analysis that contains for reference the snapshots recorded by the statistical spy in 3,747 matches in Brazil since the 2013 edition.

The variables considered in the model are: (1) the distance and angle of the shot relative to the target; (2) if the shot is head-on with the goalkeeper; (3) If this is done without the presence of the goalkeeper. (4) the part of the body used to complete it; (5) whether the termination was first straightened or charged; Was the kick taken with the player’s good or bad leg? (6) The origin of the play (penalty kick, corner kick, cross, direct foul, stealing, touch, etc.); (7) whether the assistance was provided from within the area; (8) The position in which the player plays. (9) Indicators of kick strength. (10) the market value of the teams each season from Transfermarkt website data (as a proxy for team quality); (11) Play time. (12) The age of the player. (13) The height of the goalkeeper in plays that originate from the top balls. (14) The difference in score at the time of each submission.

Of every hundred shots from the Half Moon, for example, only seven turn out to be a goal. Therefore, the Half Moon Shot Target (xG) is about 0.07. Each position on the field has a different expectation that a shot turns into a goal, which increases if it’s a counterattack because there are fewer opponents to avoid completing play. Each score is added over the course of the match to arrive at the team’s xG total in each game. This difference indicates the teams’ chances of beating each opponent, and from there, the clubs’ chance of finishing the tournament in each position is calculated.

The model used in the analysis follows a statistical distribution called a Bivariate Poisson, which calculates the probabilities of events (in this case, each team’s goals) occurring during a given time period (the game). To arrive at predictions about each team’s chances of finishing the tournament in each position, the Monte Carlo method was used, which mainly relies on simulation to generate results. For every game we haven’t played yet, we run ten thousand simulations.

* The Statistical Espionage Team consists of: Guilherme Maniaudet, Guilherme Marçal, João Guerra, Leandro Silva, Leonardo Martins, Roberto Maleson and Valmir Storti.