December 2, 2023

Corn: Chicago fell 1% on Monday with weaker US exports

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Corn futures prices on Monday (17) ended slightly rougher on the Brazilian stock market (B3). Key quotes fluctuated between R$87.08 and R$95.86.

Nov/22 maturity was at R$87.08, down 0.57%, Jan/23 at R$92.60, up 0.65%, Mar/23 at R$95, 86 at R$95, down 0.45% from May/23. R$ 94.58 with a loss of 0.16%.

In SAFRAS & Mercado’s view, the Brazilian corn market should start the week with slow sales. “The weakness of the dollar against the real and the pullback in the Chicago Stock Exchange should contribute to the cessation of export business. This situation should also affect the domestic market, and there should be an upward movement due to these factors”.

According to SAFRAS & Mercado Consultancy, the biggest movement is still centered on the ports and export business, while the physical market is a bit busy.

Brazil exported 3,250,915.7 tons of ground corn (excluding sweet corn) through October, according to a report released by the Ministry of Economy, the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex).

Thus, the volume accumulated in the first 9 working days of this month is already 80.8% higher than the 1,797,038.3 tonnes exported in the entire month of October 2021.

During the same period, Brazil imported 175,677.2 tons of corn. That is, in the first 9 working days of the month, the country received 34.9% of the total recorded in October 2021 (503,000.1 tonnes). Accordingly, the daily average import was 19,519.7 tonnes as against 25,150 tonnes in the same month last year, a decrease of 22.4%.

In the Brazilian physical market, the price of a bag of corn fluctuated between lows and highs on this first day of the week. A study carried out by the Notícias Agrícolas team found appreciation in Não-Me-Toque/RS, Panambi/RS, Cascavel/PR and Dourados/MS. Demonetizations appeared in Castro/PR, Brasilia/DF, São Gabriel do Oste/MS, Maracaju/MS, Campo Grande/MS and Puerto de Santos/SP.

See how they turned out All quotes This Monday

According to daily analysis by Agrifato Consultoria, “In the physical corn market, the increase in the dollar took the grain reference close to R$ 85.00/sc in Campinas/sp”.

This Monday, Cepea released its weekly note saying that international demand for Brazilian grain was very hot last week, pushing up prices at ports and consequently higher prices in the domestic market.

According to Sepia researchers, the increase in foreign demand is mainly linked to concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which could disrupt grain exports via the Black Sea and disrupt harvests in the United States. A slower pace compared to last season.

For Brazil, “consumers have not yet shown a more active interest in the interior of the country than what was recorded in the export corridor, most of these claimants are focused on the progress of the summer harvest and convenient carryover stocks. The current harvest. Producers, on the other hand, turn their attention to the high values ​​implemented in the ports, and large quantities in the national space. Controlled sales.

Foreign market

The Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT) also ended Monday in the negative for international corn futures prices.

Dec/22 maturity traded down 6.25 points to US$ 6.83, Mar/23 depreciated by 6.50 points to US$ 6.89 and May/23 was negotiated a fall to US$ 6, 91. 6.25 points and July/23 had a loss of 5.50 points to US$ 6.85.

These indices represent lower levels compared to last Friday’s (14) result of 0.87% for Dec/22, 1.01% for Mar/23, 0.86% for May/23 and 0.72% for Jul/23.

According to the news agency Reuters, the low level of North American exports revealed by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) this Monday pressured the grain futures market and led to a retreat in Chicago.

“Corn exports are lagging behind typical harvest season rates, USDA weekly export survey data show. Low water on the Mississippi River and its tributaries has slowed grain shipments to export terminals on the Gulf Coast, where 60% of U.S. agricultural exports leave the country,” Reuters Chicago’s Carl Bloom reports.

The USDA reported that 448,423 tons of corn were inspected last week, compared to 1.049 million in the same period last year. So far, agricultural season surveys are down 21%.