July 2, 2022
Direct Treasury: In the resumption of trading, government bond prices fall on the fourth of this month

Direct Treasury: In the resumption of trading, government bond prices fall on the fourth of this month

(marchmeena29 / GettyImages)

São Paulo – On the day of the decision on the new base rate level, economists expected the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to increase interest rates by at least 1.5 percentage points on Wednesday (27).

This adjustment helps to cause fluctuations in the prices and rates of government bonds. After about half an hour of suspension, trading of public securities via the Tesouro Direto resumed around midday, with insurance premiums dropping.

After the comment, at 11:48 a.m., the interest paid from the ex-Treasury due in 2024, for example, was 11.77%, down from 12.12% annually in the early morning. The day before, the bond had offered a return of 11.90%.

Similarly, the real yield offered by inflation-linked bonds due in 2026 fell from 5.45% earlier on Wednesday to 5.39% at 11:48 am – the same percentage seen in the previous session.

Another advantage is the real bonus paid by the Treasury IPCA+ with maturities in 2055 and the payment of the semi-annual interest, which was 5.48%, down from the 5.53% recorded in the morning. The number is in line with the 5.49% seen yesterday.

Check out the prices and quotes of all government bonds available for purchase at Tesouro Direto that were shown when trading returns on Wednesday morning (27):

direct treasury rates
Source: Tesouro Direto

selec high and unemployment

The highlight of Wednesday was Cobum’s decision, which the central bank will announce early in the evening. From Monday to Tuesday, economists forecast for high interest At today’s meeting hurry up.

with detection Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), an indicator that is a preview of official inflation, is higher than market expectations, more homes are starting to expect Selic to rise at today’s meeting,

At the moment, an increase of “at least” 1.5 points prevailed among forecasts. For Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, the IPCA-15 is putting more pressure on the central bank, as it is hard to believe that the monetary authority would have a good enough connection to deliver an increase of less than 1.5 points without causing some tension. In the market.

In the same vein, Goldman Sachs indicated that it expects Coboom to raise Cilic to at least 1.5 percentage points. However, according to the bank, there is a 20% chance of raising the base rate to between 1.75 and 2 percentage points.

Also on the economic agenda, the The vacancy rate went to 13.2% in the quarter ending August, according to the National Continuous Household Sample Survey (PNAD Continuous) released Wednesday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The median forecast for the Refinitiv consensus was that the unemployment rate would remain at 13.4% between June and August. The numbers represent a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the quarter ending in May (14.6%).

Despite the setback, the data still shows a sad truth: 13.7 million people were looking for a job in the country in the quarter ending in August.

PEC for court orders

It is also worth paying attention to the possible vote of the Presidential Election Commission on the Court of First Instance by the plenary session of the Council. And the opposition defended, on Tuesday, the emptying of the bill.

The predictions revolve around a speech by Arthur Lyra (PP-AL), President of the Chamber. When questioned, Lira said he had held a dialogue with leaders from the government base and that he would seek opposition leaders “to familiarize themselves with the text” of the PEC dos Precatorios. Most likely, she’ll be ready to vote tomorrow [hoje]”, He said.

But the debate with the opposition should not be easy. cover story Folha de Sao Paulo He says opposition parties will vote against the provision, claiming that delaying payment of court orders would create a “snowball.”

Also on the eve of the day, Marcelo Aro (PP-MG), MP Rapporteur for Auxílio Brasil, stated that he had not been contacted by the Ministry of Economy since last week to discuss the temporary measure, and adventures to say that the ministry remains in place. He does not have a budget solution for the new social assistance program that will replace Bolsa Família.

The Ministry of Economy is silent. “I have not received a single phone call from the Ministry of Economy since Friday,” the deputy said in an interview. Reuters.

International dinner

Meanwhile, in the offshore scenario, the market remains attentive to balance sheet disclosures in the US and Europe. US futures indexes are operating near stability on Wednesday.

The day before, the Dow Jones advanced, on its third consecutive day of gains, closing at a record level; The S&P rose 0.18%, which is also a record high; The Nasdaq rose 0.06%, highlighting Facebook, which lost 3.9%.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index, which aggregates shares of 600 companies from all major sectors in 17 European countries, fell, with a negative light on mining companies. Deutsche Bank reported better-than-expected earnings despite lower income from its investment banking unit. Even with the positive result, its shares fell.

Read also:

Selic Rate: What it is, why and how it affects your investments

Copom Options: Selic should go up 1.5 pips but there is plenty of room for surprises