The session on Friday (17) will focus on the external appearance. Investors are echoing the monetary policy decisions announced by the world’s leading central banks this week. Most of them decided to proceed with tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates or accelerating the withdrawal of stimulus.
On the domestic scene, the market is watching the Congress vote in an attempt to overturn the veto of the R$ 5.7 billion electoral fund. Investors also continue to absorb the rhetoric of central bank officials about keeping interest rates high for a longer period, given the balance of risks and the fact that inflation for 2022 is above target.
In this context, government bonds are operating at higher rates on Friday afternoon, reversing the mixed movement recorded earlier today. Progress is as high as 11 basis points (0.11 percentage points) in some cases.
In the update at 3:20 p.m., interest from Prefixed Treasury 2024 increased from 10.87% annually, in the previous session, to 10.98% annually. Early in the morning, the return was 10.87%. As a result, this title is once again approaching the 11% annual level, something not seen since the 7th of this month.
At the same time, the reward for the maturity of the paper in 2031 and the semi-annual interest amounted to 10.77% compared to 10.65% recorded yesterday (16) and 10.61% at the beginning of today’s trading.
Among the inflation-linked securities, Treasury IPCA +2026, for example, provided a real return of 5.07% at 3:20 pm, versus 4.98% annually in the previous session. The last time the bonds offered rates above 5% was on November 25 this year.
Treasury IPCA real interest due in 2055 and semi-annual interest was 5.28%, above 5.20% yesterday afternoon (16) and 5.25% from the opening of business.
Check rates and rates for all government bonds available for purchase at Tesouro Direto given on Friday afternoon (17):
The most prominent feature of the external scenario is the repercussions of monetary decisions by central banks. This Friday (17), Bank of Japan (BoJ, its English acronym) decided, by 8 votes to 1, to maintain its monetary policy, with the deposit rate at -0.1% per annum and the target for 10-year JBG interest around 0%, without setting asset purchase limits to achieve this Target.
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Despite maintaining monetary policy, the Bank of Japan announced that it will end, in March 2022, emergency purchases of commercial papers and corporate bonuses.
At the moment with a maximum of 20 trillion yen, the value of these securities in the portfolio will decrease to about 5 trillion yen (43.97 billion US dollars) as of April, gradually returning to the pre-pandemic level.
yesterday (16), Bank of England (BoE) Unexpectedly raised the base rate from 0.10% to 0.25% per annum. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept the interest rate unchanged at -0.5%, but decided to start gradually reducing the pace of asset purchases from the next quarter, and to end the Emergency Purchase Program by March 2022. Assets (PEPP).
Last Wednesday (15), it was Federal Reserve, which is the US central bank, also announced that it intends to end the government bond-buying program by March 2022 and indicated three interest rate increases next year.
On the external scene as well, US President Joe Biden signed yesterday (16) projects for Raising the US debt ceiling 2.5 trillion dollars. With the new law, the United States eliminates the risks of entering into hypothetical (Default) For the first time in history.
In the eurozone, data from Germany should also be highlighted. the Producer Price Index (PPI, its acronym in English) Germany jumped 19.2% in November this year, compared to the same month in 2020, the country’s official statistics agency announced today.
The result represents the index’s biggest annual advance since November 1951, 70 years ago, driven by rising energy prices, according to the agency.
Compared to just the previous month, the producer price index rose 0.8% in November. According to a statement, energy prices were, on average, 49.4% higher in November 2021 than they were in the same month in 2020.
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ANP Auction, Aneel, Guedes and Electoral Fund
At the political level, attention is focused on the auction of the National Petroleum Agency (ANP), which conducted a tender for the surplus quantities of Exhausting mission of Sepia and Atapu, in the Santos Basin before the salt.
The former received a signing bonus of 7.138 billion R$ and a minimum oil surplus of 15.02%. The winner was the consortium made up of TotalEnergies EP (28%), Petronas (21%), QP Brasil (21%) and Petrobras (30%), which provided the consortium with a surplus percentage of 37.43%, higher than the surplus. minimum.
As for Atapu volumes, there was only one bid, from a consortium of Petrobras (52.50%), Shell Brasil (25%) and TotalEnergies EP (22.50%) with a surplus of 31.68%. The signing bonus was R$4 billion, while the oil surplus (minimum percentage) was 5.89%.
The two volumes offered were won with a total reward of R$11.14 billion and a surplus percentage of 31.68% in Atabo and 37.43% in Sepia.
Upon learning of the outcome of the auction, Paulo Guedes, Economy Minister, celebrated the numbers and added that the “difficulties” with rising inflation and increasing interest rates to cool down price adjustments and the consequent slowdown in economic growth are “passenger” moves. At the same time, the minister highlighted the prospects for increased investment in the coming years.
Also on the auction agenda, the National Electric Energy Agency (ENEL) started this Thursday noon Electricity transmission lines auction, and the second in 2021. It is expected to invest 2.9 billion Brazilian reais. The five pieces included in the notice are located in states such as Amapá, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Parana and São Paulo.
Another topic back on the agenda is the electoral fund. Today, Congress began analyzing the presidential veto that prevented the 5.7 billion Brazilian real fund to finance the 2022 elections from being unsuccessful.
Part of the House of Representatives seats clarifies the cancellation of the suspension of the article dealing with this issue in the Budget Guidelines Act (LDO), therefore, the topic will be highlighted in plenary. In other words, if the government wants to ensure the suspension of the electoral fund, it will need to defeat the opposition and centrist parties in the vote.
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From the analyst’s point of viewAnd the electoral fund with decision amendments and changes in fuel price policy are among the initiatives that could increase pressure on public accounts and that would have reasonable chances of getting the approval of MPs.
This was the thirty-first edition of Energy Barometer, an InfoMoney initiative that collects monthly assessments and forecasts from political risk advisors and independent analysts on some of the issues highlighted in national policy. Find out more details in this article.
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