January 17, 2022
Direct Treasury: The interest on public bonds is reversed up and down;  Real returns on inflation papers are up to 5.67%.

Direct Treasury: The interest on public bonds is reversed up and down; Real returns on inflation papers are up to 5.67%.

The highlight of Thursday’s session (13) in Service data Today’s introduction which showed that the sector grew by 2.4% in November compared to October. The figures are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

In the annual comparison, the volume of services increased by 10.0%, registering the ninth positive rate in a row. Both numbers came in well above market expectations. Refinitiv forecasts rose 0.2% month over month, up 6.5% from the November 2020 data.

Investors are also waiting for the outcome of the meeting between Paolo Guedes, Minister of Economy, with Isaac Moreno, president of the union representing the federal tax auditors. Protests calling for the readjustment have spread across the country and it should bring together other categories of civil servants.

On the international scene, financial agents reflect US producer inflation data and unemployment insurance claims, which came in below market expectations. During the afternoon, yields on US 10-year Treasuries showed a slight decline.

In this context, the general bond market also showed a drop in interest rates at noon on Thursday (13), reversing the rise seen during the morning session. At 3:20 pm, interest paid from Treasury IPCA+ 2035 and 2045 was 5.64% per annum, down from 5.69% per annum at the start of the year. The percentage is also down from 5.65% the day before.

On the second update in the afternoon, papers maturing in 2040 and 2055 paid real returns of 5.63% and 6.67%, respectively. The day before, they offered real payouts of 5.65% and 5.71%, respectively.

Among fixed-rate securities, bonds due in 2031 paid interest of 11.26%, down from the 11.32% per annum recorded when the business opened. The rate is also down from the 11.23% seen yesterday. Meanwhile, the 2026 fixed-rate Treasuries offered a rate of 11.18%, down from 11.23% the day before.

As a result, for the third consecutive session, the 2026 bond yielded less than the 2031 bond.

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Check the quotes and prices of all public securities available for purchase from direct treasury shown on Thursday afternoon (13):

Source: Direct Treasure

Services

The highlight of the local economic calendar is the service numbers. According to IBGE, the sector is now 4.5% above the pre-pandemic level set in February 2020, but 7.3% below the record reached in November 2014.

In November, four of the five activities investigated increased, especially information and communication services (5.4%), which regained the 2.9% loss experienced in the past two months. As a result, activity is at 13.7% above February 2020.

The International Statistical Institute also reported Thursday that it revised October data from a decline of 1.2% to a more expressive decline of 1.6%.

Cumulatively, from January to November 2021, the rate was 10.9%.

November’s PMS results were clearly positive, with most activities posting gains on the sidelines. However, we believe that the pace of growth in the sector should be assessed with caution, given that a relevant part of the upside surprise with that month’s data came from choppy sectors on a monthly comparison basis,” Rodolfo Margato, economist at XP, wrote in a report.

Modifications and packaging

In the political scene, attention is focused on the meeting between Minister Paulo Guedes and the President of the National Federation of Tax Auditors of Federal Revenue, which will take place at the end of the day.

The union reported yesterday (12) that 1,288 jobs have already been handed over to the agency, as a kind of protest against the amendment that should be restricted to federal police officers only in 2022, as expected in this year’s budget.

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The claims, however, affect other jobs in the civil service. According to the newspaper Economic valueAt least 46 servers linked to the three powers have already chosen to join the protests next Tuesday (18), as a way to push for a salary adjustment.

The government and Congress also reached an agreement after the president vetoed Refis do Simples (Relp), which Congress approved. The government justified the veto on the grounds that it violated the Fiscal Responsibility Act and the law that forbids benefits in election years.

A law will be enacted from January 31 to March 31 to settle debts. By that date, Congress will have returned from recess and override the presidential veto.

Where to invest 2022

the Infomoney – In partnership with XP Investimentos – brings together some of the leading experts from Brazil and the world Where to invest 2022 event, Online and free, streamed on do channel Infomoney no youtube. Check Thursday’s schedule:

18 h 15What do you expect from the global economy in 2022? Blackstone PredictionsWith Joe Seidel (Blackstone). being able to Here is the broadcast link.

international radar

In the international market, investors reflect Product price data from the United States, which rose 0.2% in December month-on-month and accumulated a high of 9.7% in 2021, according to a report by the Department of Labor released this Thursday (13). The annual data was the largest since the data began to be counted in 2010.

However, they came in a little less than expected. Refinitiv’s forecast was to advance 0.4% month over month and 9.8% year over year.

Last week’s unemployment insurance claims, which were also filed today, were 230K. Economists have consulted before Reuters Expect 200,000 orders for the past week.

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Financial agents also monitor a letter Lyle BrainardVice Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank. According to her, the monetary authority decided that it would end diminishing (Asset Purchase Reduction) by the end of the first quarter.

The Vice President of the American Monetary Agency also informed that at the end diminishing There will be a condition to start raising interest rates. “The Fed will conduct monetary tightening with transparency,” he said.

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