Elections on the horizon? Experts say CDBs at 230% of CDI plus 3-month LCAs could be tactical assignment assets.

Volatility became a key word in reports that spread across buildings around Faria Lima. With increasing uncertainties inside and outside Brazil, some managers criticized the brakes and increased their cash position, preferring to be more cautious.

For individual investors, the recommendation is not much different. Experts heard before Infomoney He states that the moment requires caution, and this does not mean “letting money idle.”

Provisions in private securities, such as Certificates of Deposit Banks (CDBs), Real Estate Letters of Credit (LCIs), and Letters of Farm Business (LCAs), with attractive rates and maturities of up to three months, can be good assets for those who wish to wait for election results to enter the stock market. finance more aggressively or make more significant portfolio changes.

We are talking about a period of war and higher inflation. We still have elections here in the country. The parties are now talking about forming alliances, and the lists are not defined. There is a lot of uncertainty until we determine the future president,” notes Leticia Camargo, CFP financial planner.

However, the strategy is recommended for investors who have new money and who do not need short-term liquidity, that is, who already have a contingency reserve, think about the provision. He defends this, saying, “It doesn’t make sense to redeem the money someone has in other investments to put a floating rate with a short maturity.”

For those who meet these prerequisites, the scheme’s proposal is to choose a floating-rate asset linked to a CDI (fixed income reference rate) that accompanies a rise in Selic, focusing on some of the options offered to new clients paying up to 230% of CDI, Or for exempt assets, at attractive prices.

Inflation-correlated assets tend to be interesting, but since there are few offerings for such short periods, the recommendation is to prefer floating rates linked to the CDI.

On the other hand, fixed rates should be excluded, because they may have a late rate, since the investor “locks” the bonus when acquiring the paper and the interest offered was about 14%.

Although the central bank had indicated that it should end the cycle of increases at the August meeting, the market was pricing in adjustments after the meeting next month.

In a report released this week, Mauricio Oring, supervisor of macroeconomic research at Santander, estimated that British Columbia should make another 0.50 percentage point adjustment at the August meeting and point to another increase in September.

In the expert’s view, there has been a significant deterioration in inflation expectations for 2023 since the last Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), spurred by the approval of new fiscal stimulus, reduced recession and labor market tightening.

In the house forecast, Selic should finish this year at 14.25% and stay at that level until the second quarter of 2023.

Attractive rates of up to 230% of CDI

Facing a scenario where increases are estimated to exceed the August meeting, interest rates offered by brokerages for short-term securities have also reached higher levels in recent days.

The survey was conducted by Infomoney Based on data from Yubb – which aggregates information from several platforms – it showed that the maximum price offered by a CDB maturing in three months was a safety offered by Banco XP, with a 230% return from CDI. The total value. Given the investment period, the investor will still need to deduct 22.5% of the income tax.

However, the offer is only valid for new clients of the brokerage, or existing clients who have not yet made any transactions on their account. Customization will only be available until 15:00 on August 9 this year.

The minimum investment amount is R$100, while the maximum amount allowed is R$4,000. CDB has daily liquidity, but the leaf matures in 90 days.

Source: Yubb. The poll was conducted on Thursday (28). The returns are gross because there was no deduction for income tax (IR).

Likewise, it was possible to find an offer from Genial, with CDB from the same bank with a 220% return on CDI and daily liquidity. To purchase the product, however, certain conditions must be met: to be a new customer; Make a contribution of at least R$10 and a maximum of R$5,000; The implementation of only one application per CBD. There is no expiration date for the offer, according to Genial.

The survey also took into account CDBs that gave at least 110% of the CDI. In this regard, three options have emerged: Paraná Banco, Banco Bari and Facta Financeira. All with a payback after only three months.

Of the three establishments, only Parana Banco has evaluation (Credit Risk Rating) AA- National Long Term Fitch Ratings, which means it has good credit quality.

Assets such as CDBs, LCAs and LCIs have greater security due to the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC), which is up to R$250,000 per investor (CPF) and per financial institution, with a maximum of R$1 million to be renewed in four years in case of problems such as the intervention of The central bank of the enterprise. However, you have to be careful.

The ideal is to search for financial institutions that have the best evaluationwhere the probability of this happening is reduced hypothetical [calote]explains Vitor Neri Vagnani, fixed income and listed funds analyst at Blue3.

The preference is for assets with credit risk ratings ranging from AAA to A. For selection, Fagnani also suggests analyzing the yield offered by papers, especially since now, the difference in profitability they offer A high degree – With a more reliable credit profile – and through securities high yield – With a higher chance of default and more attractive rates – it is lower.

“In times of higher interest rates, the difference between the two is not very telling. Therefore, we prefer a lower rate, even in the short term,” says the Blue3 analyst.

LCIs and LCAs: Up to 95% of CDI

In the case of LCAs and LCIs, a survey was conducted by Infomoney With data from the Yubb platform showing that the highest rate LCI offered was 89% of the CDI for assignments maturing within three months.

In this case, LCI was introduced by BTG Pactual, which has a national long-term credit risk rating of AA, according to Fitch Ratings.

Among the LCAs, the study revealed that the maximum return offered reached 95% of the CDI. The security in question was a paper issued by Banco Pine, which has evaluation Long-term BB+ rating, according to Fitch Ratings.

Source: Yubb. The poll was conducted on Thursday (28). The returns are net because LCIs and LCAs are tax deductible.

The survey did not take into account fixed-rate LCIs and LCAs because the highest offered price was 14.21% for securities with a three-month maturity. Diana Benfati, financial planner at CFP and CEO of Attimo Family Office, explains that this payout represents a low-risk premium on the yield curve.

In other words, the return offered is not much higher than what financial agents do. “Selic can go to 14.25%, 15%, for example. Therefore, it is a low premium given the term and credit risk, although it is an exempt asset,” says Benefti.

The specialist at Attimo also draws attention to the fact that short-term CDBs, LCIs and LCAs can be interesting to those who are not strategically allocated at the moment, but warns that it is necessary to pay attention to liquidity.

The chart shows that products such as LCAs and LCIs have a grace period of at least 90 days, according to the National Monetary Council (CMN). That is, even if the investor needed a refund before, he would not have this possibility.

On the other hand, CDB banks do not have this grace period, but it is necessary to carefully consider if the product guarantees daily liquidity, or if it only has a payback after three months.

CBD X LCA and LCIs

In addition to considering fees, another important detail that requires investor attention is the difference in yield offered by LCIs and LCAs.

Since they are income tax-exempt securities, a good way to analyze a bond’s yield is to compare it to a CDB yield, which does not have the same tax exemption.

If an investor chooses to take an LCA with a net return of 91% and maturity in three months, for example, the return will be the same as a CDB with a total return close to 117% of the CDI for the same duration. This is because the rate that will be charged from CDB will be 22.5%.

In order to understand the most profitable options for the products surveyed, Infomoney He performed a series of simulations. If an investor invested R$500 in CDB with a 230% return on CDI, say, after three months, he would have earned R$529.43. This is already a 22.5% income tax deduction.

At the same time, if he had chosen to allocate R$500 in an LCA offering 95% of the CDI, after three months, he would have earned R$515.35.

On the other hand, if he had chosen to invest R$500 in CDB with an 112% return on CDI, he would have earned R$514.07.

Source: Direct Treasure Simulator. For the calculation, the Selic rate of 13.25% and the payback on 10/29/22 were considered.

Chances are on the table

Although investing in CDBs, LCAs and LCIs can be a pre-race asset for most experts interviewed by InfoMoney, it is essential to consider that an investor could also miss a good opportunity, defends Nicholas McCarthy, CIO of Itaú.

The CEO clarifies that he does not recommend holding positions for three months. “For more conservative investors, this could be an opportunity to lock in gains for three or four years at these interest rates,” he says.

McCarthy argues that in the same way that interest rates rose so quickly last year, they could fall back. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank’s Focus survey, the Selic index could fall to 10.75% in 2023, 8.00% in 2024, and 7.50% in 2025.

In this case, the CIO’s proposal is to take advantage of the rates offered for allocation in fixed-rate bonds maturing in three years, as with the 2025 fixed-rate treasury, for example. Besides positions in inflation-related papers, which mature within five years and preferably are exempt, the executive recommends.

Related