July 22, 2024

Ibovespa futures and the dollar alternate between slight losses and gains, investors look to Fomc and Copom

3 min read
Ibovespa futuro cai, acompanhando Wall Street, com reunião de politica monetaria do Fed no radar
Ibovespa futuro cai, acompanhando Wall Street, com reunião de politica monetaria do Fed no radar

Ibovespa’s future alternates between slight losses and gains in pre-market this Tuesday (14). The contract due in June, at 9:30 a.m. (Brasilia time), rose 0.02%, to 102,770 points, on a day marked by the lack of an accurate trend for major international indices.

In the US, US futures are operating in the green, however, still far from recovering from the previous day’s strong declines. Investors still fear that the latest inflation data, stronger than expected, will cause the Federal Reserve to speed up a key rate hike in the US this Wednesday, the day of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

Dow Jones’ September contract is up 0.10%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.19% and 0.42%, respectively.

XP explains: “The Federal Reserve is expected to begin on Tuesday to discuss whether to raise the pace of its monetary tightening in the face of rising inflation, as expectations rise that it will raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points.” Morning call.

For broker professionals, the market should also reflect, this Tuesday, the disclosure of American product inflation May – which is up 0.80% month over month, in line with the consensus.

In Europe, it is down today, although slightly lower than yesterday. The German DAX Index is down 0.83%. Britain’s FTSE lost 0.77%. The French CAC 40 index fell 1.15 percent. The STOXX 600 across the continent is down 1.22%.

Weighs there, revealing that consumer inflation in Germany, in May, came in above expectations, coming in at 0.9%, compared to the consensus of 0%. In the same country, the ZEW Economic Perception Index had a reading of 27.6, better than the consensus of 27.6. In England, the unemployment rate in April was 3.8%, an increase compared to March, when it was 3.7%.

“In the UK, labor market data shows an easing of pressure on the margins, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, which could ease pressure on the Bank of England, which is expected to raise interest rates again this week. In Germany, the release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index shows An improvement, but still in a pessimistic field,” XP analysts commented.

In Asia, the major stock exchanges did not have a single direction. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi were down 1.32% and 0.46%, respectively. On the other hand, mainland China’s Shanghai managed to close with a 1.02% gain. Hong Kong closed stable.

There, the price of a ton of iron ore fell 0.11%, to trade at $133.85. In commodities, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.43% to $121.45, and a barrel of Brent crude rose 0.56% to $122.96.

In Brazil, Ibovespa’s future program reflects service data and investors monitor public finances

In the domestic scenario, the future of Ibovespa reflects data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which showed that The service sector grew 0.2% in Aprilbelow the Refinitiv consensus of 0.4%.

The Brazilian yield curve runs with a downtrend in its middle and at its long end – the DI contract price for 2025 is down 4 basis points, to 12.76%, as is the rate for 2029, which is up to 12.76%. The return on DI for 2029 fell one point to 12.79%. On the short end, the DI for 2023 has a fruit An increase of two points to 13.6%.

The trade dollar fell 0.48% to R$5,089 on purchases and R$5,091 for sale after opening near stability.

Investors also continue to monitor the progress of PLP 18/2022, which sets caps on ICMS rates for fuels, electricity, communications, and public transportation. Yesterday, the proposal was approved in the Senate, but it had important changes, especially in compensation to states.

Previously, the federal government had to compensate states only if the total for this year’s ICMS collection fell by more than 5% compared to last year; Now, that compensation should occur when the collection for each of the items that cut rates has fallen by more than 5% compared to the same period last year.

“We estimate an additional cost of R$35 billion for the federal government, but no impact on inflation,” XP Investimentos comments.

Finally, there is also an air of caution here, on the first day of the MPC meeting (Copom). “We see two likely scenarios. The base scenario, with a 0.5 percentage point (pp) increase, indicates more open communication for the next meeting, and an alternative scenario, with a 0.5 percentage point increase, but marks the end of the XP cycle.”

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