March 30, 2023

IPCA in Brazil, Business and Retail, US Employment Report: What to Follow This Week

Sao Paulo – After a worrying week of global inflation and the energy crisis, this week’s focus was on the Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (BMI), in addition to the US employment report and price data here.

On the domestic agenda, the highlight is the extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for September, Friday (8), which is expected to be higher than 10% in the twelve months, according to estimates by Prodesco and Itaú.

“After the PC showed renewed concern with inflationary pressures in the short term, the exposure of consumer price behavior, IPGE, will bring important information to assess the sustainability of recent shocks,” Brodesco pointed out.

Reading pressure will be exerted by managed prices, especially electricity bills (affected by the high cost flag) and petrol prices. Itaú plans significant increase in industrial goods and services (such as rental, air tickets and food from home). More importantly, major inflationary measures are likely to be under pressure in this reading, the bank’s economists estimate.

In addition, the IGP-DI for September will be released on Wednesday, for which Ita திட்டமி plans a fall of 0.50% for the month, taking the annual rate to 23.49% (28.21% in August). “The key factor is still likely to be significant inflation in iron ore prices, but wholesale agricultural prices are likely to see another recession on the brink, driven mainly by coffee and maize.

With regard to economic activity, next week’s highlights are the August figures for industrial production on Tuesday (5) and the retail sales on Wednesday (6).

“In terms of industrial production, we are projecting margin sustainability. For retail sales, we expect the extended index to decline by 0.2%, while the key index is expected to improve by 1.2% per month. Prodesco points out that August would be appropriate to measure the continuity of supply constraints in the industrial manufacturing sector.

In addition, Anfave’s car production data for September will be released on Wednesday.

At the political level, discussions on the priorities in Congress may continue as the Reporter of the Constitutional Amendment can submit his report during the week. It is noteworthy that the recent news shows the possibility of inclusion in the Emergency Assistance Benefit Extension Bill, which is an important point to watch out for, ”Itach points out.

Still on the radar, the National Petroleum Agency will provide 92 volumes with laboratory risk located in 11 segments of the 92 Brazilian sedimentary beds: Campos, Pelodos, Packuvar and Santos. The company expects to sign concession agreements on March 31, 2022.

USA: Special Employment Report

In the United States, the IPCA will focus on the release of employment data for the month of September in the United States on Friday.

“Conditions in the North American labor market are one of the key variables that will determine the moment when the Federal Reserve will begin to withdraw monetary stimuli. Fomc’s recent indications make it even more relevant that this may happen at its next meeting in early November,” Prodesco points out.

Prior to that, on Wednesday (6), ATP will release information on job creation in the private sector in the country. The service sector ISM for the month of September will be released on Tuesday.

In Europe, focus on the joint PMI index released by the market for the euro zone and the United Kingdom on Tuesday morning.

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