Is gasoline more expensive with Bolsonaro than with Dilma?

after Petrobras announced Another increase in petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) pricesCritics and politicians opposed to the government Jair Bolsonaro (PL) I started comparing the values ​​of fuel Now with those who were practiced during the Dilma Rousseff (Labour) government, they question why a portion of the population that took to the streets in 2016, for example, did not do the same to protest the recent increase. But is it correct to say that gasoline is now more expensive than before?

Just looking at the inflation accumulating since then, yes, it’s more expensive now. But there are also other factors that directly affect the price of fuel, such as the price of oil and the dollar, for example. The cost of oil, in March 2016, is less than half what it is today. The dollar also affects, but it was roughly equal to the current value (adjusted for inflation). Understand the calculations below.

Under Dilma’s management, a liter of regular gasoline peaked in March 2016, at an average cost of R$3.73, according to a survey by the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels. Corrected by the IPCA (National Expanded Consumer Price Index) cumulative through February 2022 – latest available – today, this value corresponds to R$ 5.05. The latest survey by the National Ports Agency shows that the average in the country last month was R$ 6.60 per liter – nearly 31% higher.

Also in March 2016, Brent oil (a benchmark in European and Asian markets) reached its highest level on March 22, when it sold at $40.54. If inflation in the United States corrected in this period, today this value would be equivalent to $ 47.92 – less than half of the highest price a barrel traded in February 2022, on February 28: $103.08.

In other words: Although the increase in gasoline prices has outpaced the high inflation in Brazil since 2016, oil has also become more expensive on the international market during this period.

Additionally, on March 22, 2016, the dollar exchange rate was R$3.607 (updated for inflation, this gives R$4.89). The price of the dollar today is close to that, about 5 Brazilian real.

See the numbers:

gasoline

• March 2016 – Dilma government cap: R$ 3.73 (5.05 R$ in February 2022 values)
• February 2022 – The latest monthly data issued by the National Ports Agency during the Bolsonaro government: R$ 6.60
• The difference: Gasoline is 30.69% more expensive today than it was in 2016, in real terms (i.e. adjusted for inflation)

ethanol and diesel

Water and oil ethanol prices diesel It has also risen above inflation rates in recent years. In March 2016, a liter of ethanol was priced at R$ 2.87 (or R$ 3.89 in February of this year), while diesel was R$ 3.02 (4.09 R$). Last month, the average price of ethanol was diesel It was 4.74 R$ and 5.59 R$, respectively.

hydrated ethanol

• March 2016: R$ 2.87 (3.89 R$ in February 2022 values)
• February 2022: 4.74 R$
• The difference: Ethanol is 21.85% more expensive today than it was in 2016, in real terms

diesel oil

• March 2016: R$ 3.02 (4.09 R$ in February 2022)
• February 2022: 5.59 BRL
• The difference: Diesel today is 36.67% more expensive than 2016, in real terms

Impact factors

There are four variables that affect the price of fuel, according to Mauro Rochlin, professor of economics at FGV (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) Rio: the price of a barrel of oil abroad, the dollar exchange rate in Brazil, Petrobras’ profit margin, and distributors. And retailers, plus taxes.

The first two became more important as of 2016, under the leadership of Michel Temer (MDB), when Petrobras I started calculating values ​​based on the international market And to convey the differences to consumers frequently.

For example, Rochlin cited the “worst moment” of oil in recent years, during the 2008 financial crisis, when the price of a barrel of Brent crude reached $143.95, or R$231.62 at the price at that time (1,609 Rls). On Monday (21), the same type is trading at around $113, which is equivalent to R$566.81 at the current price (5,016 R$).

“Look at it in nominal terms [sem considerar a inflação]The price of a barrel of oil is now cheaper than it was in 2008. What explains this difference? The exchange rate, which has risen a lot in Brazil,” says Rochlin, adding that although it has recorded losses against the real in recent weeks, the dollar It was worth more than 5.70 BRL at the beginning of January.

In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic, and most recently the war between Russia and Ukraine, have affected prices in Brazil and abroad. Two weeks ago, the price of Brent oil crossed the level of 130 USD, reached its highest value in 14 years – and experts heard before UOL They say they think a barrel now should stay above $100 for a few months, Which will lead to more fuel in the future.

“It is a delicate and atypical situation, and it comes at a time when we were recovering from the bottlenecks caused by the Covid-19 virus. We could hardly relax from an event. [pandemia] Another one has come [guerra] Equally seriously. This will of course affect prices from now on, and the first impact will always come with fuel prices,” says André Braz, Economist and Coordinator of IPC (Consumer Price Index) at Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics)/FGV.

Interventions in Petrobras

Dilma Rousseff and Jair Bolsonaro Already intervened in Petrobras To try to control the price of fuel. In 2014 and 2015, before adopting the current pricing policy, the state-owned company kept prices at refineries frozen, even as the price of a barrel of oil rose abroad, with the aim of containing inflation in the country. This action was one of the main reasons behind Petrobras’ losses for four years between 2014 and 2017, at the end of the Dilma government and the beginning of the Temer government.

Recently, in April 2019, Bolsonaro pressured Petrobras Cancellation of a 5.7% increase in diesel at refineries —A reference to truck drivers, an important part of their support base. On the same day, the state-owned company shares in the Brazilian Stock Exchange, b 3And the decreased by more than 8%.

In February 2021, Bolsonaro also announced that he would not renew the term of then-President of Petrobras, Roberto Castelo Branco, because he was dissatisfied with the company’s pricing policy. Appointment of General Joaquim Luna y Silva, who heads the state-owned company until today, It happened in the same month.

“With Dilma, control [na Petrobras] Came from top to bottom, it was a government decision to keep prices fixed by force; In Bolsonaro’s case, it was his individual decision, from the bottom up, due to the pressures of the sector [os caminhoneiros]’I said to UOL Alvaro Frasson, Today Manager BTG charterin April 2019.