December 6, 2023
Monetary policy decisions in Brazil and Europe and PCE in the US move the week

Monetary policy decisions in Brazil and Europe and PCE in the US move the week

Photo: Agência Senado / BM&C News

After a week for stocks in the West, this week’s agenda will contain important indicators and may change the mood of the market, especially in Europe and the US. In Brazil, the second round of elections is in its final stages, with the election to be decided on Sunday, October 30.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish its monetary policy decision on Thursday (27), with the aim of raising interest rates aggressively to tackle record inflation, even a slowdown in the group’s economies. The market expects the ECB to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

In the US, the key indicator will be the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for September, which will be announced on Friday (28). PCE is the key inflation data for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, which are scheduled to meet on November 1 and 2. Investors expect the core index excluding energy and food to rise 5.2%.

Here, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COBOM) is expected to take a further decision on Wednesday (22) and keep the interest rate at 13.75%. However, the BC had already warned in the last report that the rate should be kept at this level for a long time and “will not hesitate to restart the adjustment cycle if the inflationary process does not go as expected”.

Check out this week’s agenda of economic indicators:

Monday, October 24:

4:30 am – Germany: PMI Composites and Industrials (October)

5:00 am – China: Trade balance (September)

5:00 am – Eurozone: Composite and Industrial PMI (October)

5:30 am – UK: PMI Composites and Industrials (October)

8:00 am – Brazil: IPC-S (October 3rd Quadriweek)

8:25 am – Brazil: Bulletin Focus

9:30 am – Brazil: Current Transactions (August)

9:30 am US: Fed Chicago National Activity Index (September)

10:45 am – US: PMI composite and industrial (October)

15:00 – Brazil: Weekly trade balance

Tuesday, October 25:

5:00 am – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (October)

8:00 am – Brazil: Consumer Survey (October)

8h – Brazil: IPC-S Capitals (October 3rd Quadriweek)

9 am – Brazil: IPCA-15 (October)

11 am – US: CB Consumer Confidence (October)

17:30 – USA: Oil Stocks – API

Wednesday, October 26:

8 am – Brazil: INCC-M (October)

8:00 am – Brazil: Construction Survey (October)

9 am – Brazil: IPP (September)

9:30 am – USA: Wholesale Commodities – Preliminary

11 am – US: New Home Sales (September)

11:30 am – US: Crude Oil Stocks – DoE

6:30 pm – Brazil: Copom’s Fiscal Policy Decision

Thursday, October 27:

8:00 am – Brazil: New cage employment data (September)

8:00 am – Brazil: Industry Review (October)

9 am – Brazil: Unemployment rate

9:15 am – Eurozone: ECB monetary policy decision

9:30 am – Eurozone: Interview with ECB President Christine Lagarde

9:30 am – US: GDP (3rd Quarter 2022)

9:30 am – US: Applications for unemployment insurance

9:30 am – US: Durable goods orders (September)

20:30 – Japan: IPC (October)

Friday, October 28:

5 am – Germany: IPC (October)

5:00 am – Germany: Preliminary GDP (3rd Quarter 2022)

6am – Eurozone: Consumer confidence (October)

8 am – Brazil: IGP-M (October)

8:00 am – Brazil: Trade and Services Survey (October)

9:30 am – USA: PCE and PCE Core (September)

11 am – US: Consumer Confidence (October)

11 am – US: Pending Home Sales (September)

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