For consultant Ênio Fernandez, the Brazilian producer should be aware of potential business opportunities until the end of the year.
Soybeans are regaining momentum in Chicago with the final stretch of the U.S. harvest and purchases from China; Attention turns to Brazil’s climate
Soybean market maintained its strength and ended the trading session this Tuesday (25) with an increase of 10 to 12.50 points in the main maturities, November 13.82 and May – reference for the Brazilian crop – $14.09 a. Bush soybean meal futures also stood out in the session, closing another day with good gains, up more than 1% from heavily traded levels at US$ 415.60 per short tonne for December.
As explained by Ênio Fernández, agribusiness consultant of Terra Agronegocios, the rough news is already on the table – including the harvest in the United States, reaching 80% of the area, planting in South America and macroeconomics – showing some of the demand. Robustness, which is now a favorable factor for prices.
“Looking at historical data, we must remember that food is a very resilient commodity to price drops during recessions. This does not mean that it is immune, but it is less affected. It shows that Brazilian producers have more opportunities to lock in their prices and build margins. Because making good margins is more important than getting the price right,” says the consultant.
If it reaches anything between US$ 13.60 and US$ 13.80, the market finds buy points, and between US$ 14.00 and US$ 14.20, sell points. According to Fernandez, it will change according to the climate changes that present themselves to the state of Mato Grosso. “Any adversity will make the market in Chicago look closer to resistance. And prices should work in this range, at least, until December, when looking at the weather maps for 30, 60 days, it is important to know about the total harvest. South America”, he explains.
Fernandez also highlights the importance of monitoring two other external factors that can have a direct impact not only on soybeans, but also on commodities in general: the behavior of oil prices and the future of interest rates in the United States, due to the latter. Influence the foreign exchange market and the real against the dollar and, therefore, influence the composition of prices for Brazilian soybeans.
Therefore, with the uncertainties that accumulate in the markets and the important signals that Chicago is giving, as Ênio Fernandes says, the producer must know not only the best moments but also the strategies to move forward with its commercialization. It will adopt to ensure effective business planning. “For those with good productivity, the situation will be favourable”.
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