The elections are generally followed by a period of “honey moon”, where the new government is particularly popular, and one of François Legault is no exception to the rule. If a vote had been held this month, the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) would have got 44.5% of votes — seven points better than the 37.4 per cent that have earned him a majority government last November.
At least that is what shows a survey Mainstreet conducted on January 17 and 18 with 979 people (margin of error of ± 3.1 %, 19 times out of 20). The statistical survey also provides 26 % of voting intentions in the Quebec liberal Party (QLP), and 16 % for Québec solidaire (QS) after distribution of the undecided, the scores are almost identical to the election of October (25 and 16%, respectively). The Parti québécois (PQ), it gets only a meagre 9 %.
“The moon of honey, it is a phenomenon that we see at all levels of government. On one side, there was a thirst for change and here, we see this change finally happen. On the other, we tend to be more forgiving with a government that has just arrived, we let the chance to the rider,” says Luc Fortin, a former liberal cabinet minister who now directs the activities of Mainstreet in Quebec.
“And the honeymoon is even intensified for the CAQ,” he continues. […] When we look at the data for the whole of the territory, it is noted that the CAQ gets 50 % or more of the voting intentions everywhere, except in the island of Montreal.”
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In the region of Quebec, the party of François Legault has even 58 % of the popular favour, while the three “other” must be satisfied with the crumbs — between 9 and 14 %. The sub-regional compositions, however, are small, and their margin of error is greater, the notable.
The QLP does not seem to suffer too much to not have a head, but the slight increase of one point since the election is mostly concentrated in Montreal, ” said Fortin. Among francophones, a group where the CAQ dominates (52 %), it remains stagnant at around 15 %.
The idea of a preservation of the acquis also applies to QS, that has not made progress, but that has kept the favor of 18-34 year olds, a part of the electorate on which the left party had a lot staked, and which he retained the favour. QS is always first among the “young” at 31 %.
Cause for concern for the PQ
“However, the figures are much more worrying for the PQ,” said Mr. Fortin. In addition to not having to head for the moment, analysis-t-it, the pq members are brought out of the island of Montreal and the Quebec region, “the two main poles media of Quebec”. It doesn’t help to get visibility.
“But virtually all of the indicators are down for the PQ,” insists Mr. Fortin. Women, a group that has long looked to the pq members, no more than 8 % to want to vote pq, and the party founded by René Lévesque has more than 10 % support among francophones, far behind the CAQ, QS (17 %) and the LIBERALS (16 %). Historically associated with the babyboomers, the PQ does not collect more than 10 % of the favor of the 65 years and over. And even in “the regions”, where the majority of elected pq members are now, the party only gets 10 %.