Survey Mainstreet: Trudeau loses feathers

Sondage Mainstreet: Trudeau perd des plumes

A few months of the federal election next fall, the advance of the federal liberals on the conservative Party, has melted to just two points, while she was still five points in November last year, reveals a survey Mainstreet.

The stroke of the probe provides 37 % of the popular favour to the troops of Justin Trudeau, compared to 35% for those of Andrew Scheer, after distribution of the undecided. The New democratic Party (NDP) following far behind with only 11.5 % of voting intentions. In Quebec, the PLC gets 42 % support, far ahead of the PCC (19 %), the Bloc québécois (13.5 %) and NDP (9 %).

This survey Mainstreet was performed by automated calls from 12 to 17 January. Her sample of 7941 respondents provides a margin of error of ± 1.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20 — but the margins of error are higher in sub-samples to the provincial level.

The liberals remain, however, quite clearly the favorites to win the elections this year, the former liberal minister and president of the division québécoise de Mainstreet Luc Fortin, in part because the support of conservatives are concentrated in Alberta (60 %) and the Prairies (50 %), where they reach levels that do not translate into additional seats. And in part because it is”another thing to emphasize,” adds Mr. Fortin, is that there has not been a sharp rise in support for conservatives since last November. This is mainly because of a rise of the NDP in some provinces that has set back the liberal Party”.

In Ontario in particular, the progress of the NDP were made by melting the advance liberal 11% to 6% over the conservatives since November. And in British Columbia, it is even now the CCP is in advance (35% to 33%). But despite this recent progress, support new democrats are still well below their levels of the election of 2015 — by almost 10 points in British Columbia and by a good fifteen points in Quebec.

In la Belle Province in particular, analysis M. Fortin, “these figures there show an increase of seven percentage points for the liberals compared to 2015, when they had won 40 seats. Then we can think that with support, such as those of this month, they would go for more gains yet. It means that Quebec is even more important for the Trudeau government, and we understand why he puts a lot of energy in Quebec : because her majority depends on it.”

Sondage Mainstreet: Trudeau perd des plumes

Infographic The Sun

Moreover, in addition to voting intentions, Mainstreet has also measured the optimism of the population with respect to the canadian economy for the next year and their personal finances. “Generally,” says Mr. Fortin, when people are satisfied with the performance of the economy, they tend to vote for the government. And they say that they are rather optimistic in our survey.”

In fact, 55 % of respondents were “very” or “fairly optimistic” about the upcoming of the canadian economy, compared to 36 % of “very” or “fairly pessimistic”. The trend is even clearer in relation to personal finance, where Mainstreet has obtained 61% were optimistic and 31 % pessimistic.

“This is good news for the government, this demonstrates that people do not feel financial insecurity, and it is an important determinant of the vote,” says Mr. Fortin.

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