The forecast for La Niña rises to 59% between June and August

The US Meteorological Institute expects a third consecutive crop under the influence of the phenomenon

Renan Matos / FUTURA PRESS / ESTADO CONTENTThe region’s drought is hurting farms in Rio Grande do Sul

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an institution of the US government, said this week that the chances of La Niña went up. According to NOAA, this phenomenon has a 59% chance of appearing between June and August, versus a 37% chance expected in mid-March and 53% at the beginning of last month. This information is important to agricultural business In Brazil, where the crop may be affected by the lack of rain in some areas. Traditionally, La Niña tends to reduce precipitation in states south And in some areas of the center and more abundant to north And the Northeast.

Confirmation of the phenomenon can also affect the North American crop. The risks of production shortfalls are closely watched by the global grain market, which has historically low stocks and bumper crops to ensure supplies and possibly lower food prices in the future. In an assessment by Celso Oliveira, an agricultural meteorologist at Climatempo, the perspective is that Brazilian farmers should, in fact, have a third consecutive crop under the influence of La Niña. The alert continues in southern Brazil, Sao Paulo And Mato Grosso do Sulwhich predicted below-average rain between May and July and threatens the second corn crop currently in development.

Another important point to highlight is the potential impact of La Niña on the US crop. The specialist compares the 22/23 season with the 2012 season, when production fell sharply due to drought. So far, soil moisture is good, but the main danger is between June and July, when there is an expectation of lower than normal humidity and higher temperatures, when the crops are in the flowering and grain filling phase. It is good to remember that in addition to La Niña, other weather conditions affect the climate. In other words, it’s too early to predict crop failure. It’s time to redouble the attention to weather forecasts and crop treatments in the fields to try to minimize potential losses and ensure maximum yields.

*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.