March 21, 2023
The IPCA-15 rose 0.53% in November, less than expected

The IPCA-15 rose 0.53% in November, less than expected

The Expanded National Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15) rose again in November, by 0.53% compared to October, reported Thursday (24) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The data was 0.37 percentage points (pp) above the October result (0.16%).

Inflation reported in October was below the consensus of Refinitiv, which forecast a 0.56% increase from the previous month.

With the result announced on Wednesday, the IPCA-15 is accruing 5.53% on the year. The 12-month rate was 6.17%. The prediction was higher, at 6.21%.


Except for the communications group, which showed stability in prices (0.00%), all other groups of surveyed products and services experienced a positive change in November.

The main influences came from food and beverages (0.54%) and health and personal care (0.91%). Next came the Transport group, which eased from 0.64% in October to an increase of 0.49% in November. The biggest change in the index during the month came from Apparel, which rose by 1.48%, a result close to that recorded in the previous month (1.43%).

The housing group also rose 0.48% from 0.28% in October. The other groups had between 0.05% for education and 0.54% for household items.

In the food and beverage group, the rise was driven by food for consumption at home (0.60%). It was also noted that the prices of tomatoes (17.79%), onions (13.79%) and potatoes (8.99%) increased. In addition, fruit prices increased by 3.49% in the month. On the negative side, it is worth noting long-term milk (-6.28%), whose prices actually fell in October (-9.91%).

Food outside the home increased by 0.40%, a similar change to that recorded in the previous month (0.37%). While the meal rose 0.36%, the snack advanced 0.54%. In October, the changes were 0.44% and 0.23%, respectively.

Health, transportation, clothing and communications

In the field of health and personal care, the most prominent items were personal hygiene (1.76%), especially skin products (6.68%), and health plans (1.21%).

In the transportation group, fuel prices rose (2.04%) again, after five consecutive months of decline. After declining by 5.92% in October, gasoline prices increased by 1.67% in November, contributing the single largest impact on the index during the month, by 0.08 percentage points. Ethanol prices increased by 6.16% and diesel oil by 0.12%. Only vehicle gas (-0.98%) recorded a decrease among the fuels studied.

In the transportation sector, air fares saw a decline of 9.48% in November, compared to an increase of 28.17% in the previous month. In doing so, they contributed the largest negative impact in the month of November, by -0.08 pg. Also notable are declines in transportation by app (-1.04%) and in used cars (-0.82%).

In the clothing group, all scanned items were unloaded, except jewelry (-0.04%). The main contributions came from women’s clothing (1.93%) and shoes and accessories (1.44%).

The acceleration in the housing group (from 0.28% in October to 0.48% in November) was mainly due to increases in residential rents (0.83%) and electricity (0.44%).

In the group, the rise in the water and sanitation rate (0.55%) is due to tariff adjustments in Rio de Janeiro (2.59%) and Porto Alegre (2.94%). In the first, the adjustment of 11.82% took effect on November 8; In the second, there was a 13.22% adjustment in one of the franchisees, effective September 29.

In the Communications group, which remained stable, there was an increase in landline plans (2.40%) and streaming services (3.09%). On the other hand, there was a decline in the prices of handsets (-0.35%) and mobile phone plans (-0.99%).

regional indicators

As for regional indicators, all surveyed regions experienced positive changes in November. The largest occurred in Recife (0.78%), where there was a 4.97% rise in petrol prices (4.97%), and in Brasilia (0.78%), where the increase in electricity was (74.44%). The smallest variation was recorded in Curitiba (0.11%), as a result of lower prices for meat (-3.05%) and air tickets (-8.27%).