(Bloomberg) – The supply shock that helped push inflation to its peak for decades is showing signs of relief in the United States, but is getting worse in Europe.
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This is a result of the latest data on new distribution indicators provided by Bloomberg Economics. The US index fell in October, a sign that the deficit is now lower, despite being at a historically high level.
If this trend continues until 2022, the impact on American consumers will begin to fade. This could make the job a little easier for newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is under pressure to tighten monetary policy due to rising prices.
Easing the U.S. supply crisis supports President Joe Biden’s view that sanctions will be eased after his government begins easing operations in West Coast ports. Biden’s popularity has plummeted recently amid economic concerns such as inflation: 43% of voters agree with his performance in office, according to opinion polls conducted by Five Thirty-Eight.
“More and more goods are leaving our ports and arriving at your doorstep and store cabinets faster and cheaper,” Biden said Tuesday. Leading retailers such as Walmart, Target and Home Depot “have ensured that shelves in stores are well stocked during the holiday season,” he said.
The US Supply Indicator – and comparable Bloomberg Economic Indices for the Eurozone and the UK – are based on various data such as factory prices, inventory and order books. Positive indicators, in recent months, indicate restrictions, while negatives – in the first months of the Govt crisis – indicate that goods are relatively plentiful.
In the Eurozone, the Bloomberg Economic Index shows that conditions are even more complex. The supply deficit helped keep inflation at 4.1% in October, the highest level in two decades.
Those who support the European Central Bank’s tightening of monetary policy have a bright spot: the pace of decline seems to be fading.
However, the order / share ratio in factories and stores in Europe continues to rise. In Germany, at the center of the continent’s economic power, the number of vacancies per person looking for work is increasing, and labor shortages are beginning to raise wages.
The film is very similar in the United Kingdom, with its index reaching a new peak in October.
Manufacturer price indicators, stock levels and labor market conditions show that the deficit is getting worse. The impact of the quick reopening after the locks, a global phenomenon, is unique to the UK: trade frictions escalated following the country’s exit from the EU.
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