July 18, 2024

The unemployment rate is expected to remain above 10% in the coming years

2 min read

According to economists, the unemployment rate should remain above 10% until at least 2025. If confirmed, Brazil will complete 10 consecutive years of double-digit unemployment.

Analysts say such a long period of unemployment is socially and economically devastating. After all, this prevents the sustainable growth of gross domestic product (GDP).

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According to the IBGE, Brazil has recorded increases in the unemployment rate above 10% since 2016. Economists say the economic crisis in recent years explains the high unemployment rate.

Historically, a drop in the unemployment rate of more than 2% is required. At least, this is our experience before the pandemic. […] So we will likely have to live with at least double-digit unemployment for the next two years.”says economist Alexander Schwartsman, former director of international relations at the central bank and partner at consulting firm Schwartsman & Associados.

IBGE data and market forecast show growth difficulties in Economie In the midst of frequent crises, such as the disparity in GDP. understand:

  • 2012: +1.9% (IBGE)
  • 2013: +3%
  • 2014: +0.5%
  • 2015: -3.5%
  • 2016: -3.3%
  • 2017: +1.3%
  • 2018: +1.8%
  • 2019: +1.2%
  • 2020: -3.9%
  • 2021: +4.5% (market forecast)
  • 2022: +0.3%
  • 2023: +1.5%
  • 2024: +2%
  • 2025: +2%

unemployment solutions

As for the solution to this problem, there is some disagreement among economists. Some advocate state investment in the economy, while others point to the need to balance public accounts in favor of attracting resources for production.

However, the Department of Labor and Welfare said it does not comment on the uncertain outlook regarding unemployment.

However, it is important to remember the latest available data and forecasts regarding the unemployment rate, which were announced during the pandemic, and which were subsequently not verified. […] Also in 2020, many research institutions and financial markets have forecast unemployment rates of between 18% and 23%, considering the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. These results did not occur in 2020 or 2021.”Ministry said.

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