Washington and Tehran will eventually be able to strike a nuclear deal because Iran needs to ease economic sanctions, according to a senior adviser at a US think tank.
“I think, in the end, the deal is possible because the Iranians need the money,” said Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Both the United States and Iran seem interested in returning to the negotiating table, but they have not been able to agree on who should take the first step. The Last week, the Biden administration offered to start talks with Tehran. But Iran has confirmed this time and time again The United States should lift sanctions to start the process. Washington has so far resisted these calls.
In addition to, Iran’s new agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency She is “definitely not helpful” and Goldberg said it fell short of its previously permitted.
Iran’s parliament passed a law banning inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but the two sides said on Sunday that “necessary verification and monitoring activities” would continue for up to three months.
Tan Feng Chen of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore said Iran understands that preventing inspections may have flaws.
He said that the three-month period “gives some time and some time for the United States and Iran to try to find a solution to the serialization problem.” “Capital connection.”
Goldberg also remains optimistic that an agreement can be reached.
He told CNBC: “All you see, all the threats, terrorism, threats in the Gulf, the seizure of tankers, the nuclear program, the taking of hostages are all different methods of extortion to get money and reduce sanctions.” Squawk Box Asia on Monday. “This means a deal is possible.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
The severe sanctions on Iran – imposed by the Trump administration after its withdrawal from the 2015 agreement – have been devastating to Tehran’s economy.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the last time Iran saw its GDP growth was in 2017, and The Islamic Republic only got $ 8.8 billion in foreign exchange reserves last year. That’s down from $ 12.7 billion in 2019 and $ 121.6 billion in 2018.
“They are suffering from the sanctions imposed by President Trump, the so-called maximum pressure campaign,” Goldberg said.
He added, “It is clear that they need to have the money, they need the sanctions relief, and they want to provoke a crisis to try to force Biden to enter into some kind of talks that includes sanctions relief.”
However, questions remain about what the deal will look like.
Iran has said its violations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are reversible and can be reversed. But Goldberg disagreed.
“There are many steps that cannot be undone,” he said. “The know-how they gained from testing advanced centrifuges, that’s something we can’t put back into the bottle.”
He indicated that the agreement came with the expiration of the restrictions imposed on Iran’s nuclear program.
“Ago [the JCPOA is] Already five years ago, we are not in the period when the deal is in Iran’s favor anyway, so this is a big question mark about whether the Biden administration and its European and Asian allies want to return to the deal or simply hold out and negotiate a new deal. “