December 3, 2023
The US labor market is showing signs of improvement but has not yet recovered

The US labor market is showing signs of improvement but has not yet recovered

More than 20 months after the epidemic, the labor market United States Reached a historic milestone. Requests for Unemployment insurance Weekly fees fell to 199,000 last week after seasonal changes, the lowest level since 1969. 6.15 million in April 2020.

So does that mean working conditions have returned to normal? Not exactly.

“Even if orders fall [de desemprego] That fact must be taken into account. ” “Orders are very volatile, especially during the holidays.”

The reason for the very low number of claims may be related to ongoing corruption in Job market.

“Orders are declining because employers are tightening their grip on their employees due to labor shortages,” said Peter Bouquar, chief investment officer at Flickly Advisory Group.

Demand for labor is high, but the number of actively seeking work is declining. In September, the number of people leaving work voluntarily rose to 4.4 million.

The US jobs report for November is due out this week and will be closely monitored, especially as central banks evaluate their next steps.

Economists polled by Refinitiv expect even better news. The economy added 563,000 jobs, up from 531,000 in October.

Fee Unemployment Should be reduced to 4.5%. In February 2020, it was 3.5% Federal Reserve More space to withdraw economic stimulus measures while trying to control inflation without affecting job income.

In a research note released on Thursday (25), strategic experts Goldman socks Predicts that the central bank will choose to expedite the asset purchase reduction rate. They expect the central bank to announce in December that it will cut $ 30 billion a month in bond purchases starting in January.

This will allow the central bank to consider increasing Interest ratesIn early March, he said he would only do so once the gradual eviction work on the property was completed. Goldman expects the central bank to wait until June to “get some additional employment reports”.

* (Translated text. Click here Original, read in English)