July 1, 2022
Ukraine's war could last more than a year, and Russia could be isolated for up to 20 years, says professor of international relations topic

Ukraine’s war could last more than a year, and Russia could be isolated for up to 20 years, says professor of international relations topic

Tangi Baghdadi, professor of international relations at the University of Vieja de Almeida, Tangi Baghdadi, stated in an interview with the “The Subject” podcast that he believes that the war in Ukraine It may last for months or more than a year, and that Russia It must remain isolated for at least 10-20 years.

Since February 24, when the Russian attacks began, the Kyiv government has taken about 20% of the territory occupied by the invader, losing up to 100 soldiers per day, destroying cities and at least 14 million people who had to leave their homes when the country was not. Despite the losses of the Ukrainians, the Russia He is surprised by their resistance as they lose generals and suffer unprecedented punishments.

“My expectation is that Russia She will be isolated for 10, 15, 20 years. But the war still has at least a few months, maybe more than a year, to unfold Russia Declare your victory. “You can’t predict when that will happen,” al-Baghdadi said.

Both sides continue to assert that they will achieve victory on the battlefield. But Professor Veiga de Almeida thinks a victory declaration Russia It will come “sometime” given the country’s scattered goals in the war.

Russia Immerse yourself in this war. It may even happen at some point you declare victory. […] goals that Russia Put it very pervasive, like “de-Nazification”, notions that can’t be exactly quantified, so this guarantees [presidente russo, Vladimir] “Putin can say at any time that he won the war,” he said.

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possibility of two blocks

In a conversation with Renata Le Pretty, Tanguy also analyzed the position of North America and the possibility of the formation of two opposing blocs.

“We can see the formation of two completely separate blocks.” It will be the result of litigation with the United States Russia and China. However, according to the professor, China was not consulted. “I think China is not very happy with this split. China wants to get close to RussiaBut it has very close and very intense relations with Western countries.”

High price and diplomatic production

The professor also commented on the exorbitant costs of the war for both Ukraine And the Russia For the United States and Western European countries. “This is a very costly war and it has long-term effects on the entire world,” Al-Baghdadi said. According to him, this “prompted countries to think of a way out other than war and do it with those who are thinking of giving in to something.”

The Ukraine It needs more: not just ending the conflict, but concluding diplomatic agreements that would prevent “another war in two years.”