Expectations are that prices will only drop in the coming months, between May and July. (see below).
carrot boom reached nearly 200% accumulated in the 12 months through April, while Tomatoes are up 117% in the same period. The data was DrPublished this Wednesday (27) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
In the case of low tide, inflation continues to be a reflection of the heavy rain that TheAffected the country’s main crops in January And caused a decrease in the volume of food sold by producers. With this, he began to find the kilogram for 10 to 14 Brazilian reais.
states of Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo Espirito Santo, two major producers, were the hardest hit. Saint Gotthard (MG), one of the major municipalities supplying the national market, suffered losses due to rains in January and February.
Carrots up 200% – Photo: Pixabay
Another reason is to discard carrots after harvest, as moisture in the soil has left food damp and unfit for consumption, in addition to causing root disease. With less supply, the price kept going up.
However, the producer has already found lower prices since the beginning of April. The decline can be explained by the regulation of supply and a long period of upside that has not been absorbed by the market, says researcher Marina Marangon, of the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea).
“The price paid scenario for the product shows a drop, so it could be in the consumer’s favor as well. But there is a question about what will or won’t get passed in the sales channels. An estimate I can’t say for sure, but where the price was about three weeks ago [para o produtor] And soon it will comfort the consumer, yes.”
Toshiyuki Mishima, who has been the president of the carrot processing company for more than 20 years, in Bidade (SP), confirms the slight improvement in prices in April. He buys “dirty” carrots from the fields, washes them, picks them and packs them for resale in the markets.
“Last month, the 29kg box was still selling for R$130 and R$140. Now, I find it for R$70 and even R$50. It has improved for us, but in the market it takes a while to reflect and I think That in the coming months the consumer will already find a variation in kilograms between 5.99 Brazilian reals and 10 US dollars.”
The 50 commodities that rose the most in the 12 months to April inflation preview – Photo: Economy G1
Mishima points out that the supply of carrots tends to rise in winter, which helps improve values.
“Production usually increases. Therefore, if we had a larger supply of carrots, we would have better prices. The only observation is that the weather is unpredictable. But we hope that the price will not continue to rise as at the beginning of the year,” he says.
Tomatoes – Photo: Eddie Pipocas / Unplash
The The tomato yield also remains smaller where Heavy rains at the beginning of the year caused losses to farms, affecting producers in the Southeast and Northeast. As a result, prices remain high, explains researcher Joao Paulo Delio, from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea-Esalq/USP).
Deleo also indicates that the . file The area of tomato planted has been decreasing since 2020 Because at the beginning of the epidemic, it was Producers lost sales as trade closed And decided to reduce the area of cultivation.
They keep doing this step in 2021, but for another reason: In March of that year, the harvest was bountiful which led to lower producer prices. To recoup the revenue, they decided to shrink the space further and that was reflected in the prices.
Another factor is the end of the summer season and the beginning of the winter that occurs In April in the south and southeast. At this time, it is customary to harvest very few tomatoes.
“Prices tend to fall between July and September, as the winter crop progresses,” Delio says.
In the southern and southeastern regions, where tomato production is strongest, The winter harvest takes place between April and November, while the summer harvest runs from December to March.
Rain destroys carrot production in Minas Gerais
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