February 2, 2023

US beef exports remain strong

Beef exports to the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia have already set annual volume records, and exports to Thailand are on a record pace.

Exports will be a major driver of US cattle and beef markets in 2023. Maintaining export demand is affected by what happens in the currency markets. Beef export data continues to show overall growth, but with high levels of economic uncertainty around the world, headwinds remain strong.

Beef exports will account for 12.2% of total annual production in 2021. The share of exports increased slightly in 2022.

Exports are down by the end of 2022

November trade data showed monthly U.S. beef import volumes were the lowest in nearly two years, while exports fell from a year earlier in the second month of 2022.

November beef exports were 125.64 million kg, down 6.1% from November 2021. Exports to most major destinations declined, with China down 10.7% from 2021. Japan fell 10.1%, Mexico 5.4% and South Korea 3.0% year-over-year. Exports to Canada increased by 7.9% year-over-year.

Export volume for January to November 2022 was 1.48 billion kg, 4.0% higher than the record level for 2021. Year-to-date exports to Japan, the main U.S. beef market by beef, were down 1.7% from the same period last year. . January-November export volume to South Korea rose 2.1% and is likely to break the 2021 volume record when December data becomes available. Beef exports to China increased 22.3% from January to November and have already broken the annual record for 2021. Through November, exports to Mexico and Canada were 11.6% lower and 1.6% higher than last year’s levels, respectively.

Beef exports to the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia have already set annual volume records, and exports to Thailand are on a record pace. Exports to Taiwan are also on a record pace through November and are poised to break the 2020 record.

US beef imports were 109.3 million kg in November, down 18.8% from November 2021, marking the lowest monthly import volume since February 2021 (90 million kg). A 3.6% decline in exports from Mexico, a 20.9% decline in Australia, a 32.1% decline in New Zealand and a 62.6% decline in Brazil offset a 3.2% increase in exports from Canada.

Through November, imports rose 2.3% year-over-year, with Canada up 1.1%, Mexico up 10.7% and Brazil up 42.0%. Year-to-date, beef imports from Australia and New Zealand are down 3.4% and 22.9% respectively.

US Beef Export Outlook 2023

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, prepared and published by the World Agriculture Outlook Board, show that beef export projections for 2023 are down about 13% from 2022, while import projections are down about 1%. Facts in America and Abroad.

A weaker US dollar is needed to offset some of the expected rise in export prices. Continued strengthening of the US dollar will not be favorable for exports. A stronger U.S. dollar means international buyers must pay more in their home currency to buy U.S. beef. A strong U.S. dollar tends to support U.S. beef imports because it effectively lowers the price of beef in other markets.

Source: BEEF Magazine, translated and adapted by the BeefPoint team.

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