March 31, 2023
US corn crop alert

US corn crop alert

“As we move west, corn yields are lower and lower. We had a lot of trouble with the lack of moisture from early July to mid-August,” said Daniel Bass, president of AgResource, a North American consultancy participating in the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour in the United States.

“We changed our course and moved west because that’s really where the productivity decline is. If there’s going to be a loss in the U.S. this year, it’s going to be in western Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas and Missouri,” the commodity economist added.

The personal and volunteer survey of crops ends on Thursday, August 25, and the best yields are expected in Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois. Corn yield was set at 177.8 bushels per acre, up from the three-year average of 178.2 bushels per acre.

“Indiana’s soybean pod count was 1166, compared to the 3-year average of 1148. Indiana corn should be average and soybean yield potential depends on the weather forecast at the end of the season. In Nebraska, corn yield and soybean pod count were lower compared to the 3-year average. As a result, In addition to disappointing yields in South Dakota, the market reduced the state’s income potential,” says AgResource.

And the prices, how are they?

With harvest set to begin in the Midwest, market analysts say the transition from old to new harvests will reduce supply for spot purchases. “These have already started to fall in Tuesday’s futures rally, with corn down 20 cents on the dollar and soybeans being offered against November. Many end users have coverage until September 10 and are not willing to pay a premium for spot offers. Soy crushers are looking to fill supply,” they said.

AgResource believes, “One should not follow the price boom, and risks will tilt to the downside once the pro farmer tour ends. Soybeans could lead to downside as the US has the potential to produce a record crop in September. November soybean futures are not priced ahead of the U.S. harvest.