September 30, 2023
US GDP, Brazilian earnings data and ICMS ceiling on energy and fuel: Current market issues

US GDP, Brazilian earnings data and ICMS ceiling on energy and fuel: Current market issues

New York indices and European stock markets are moving closer to stability, while Asian markets closed with different signals on Thursday morning (26).

Investors echo the latest signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding US interest rate hikes.

The final reading of GDP in the first quarter of the United States (9:30 am) showed an annual decline of 1.4% in the previous quarter. Data can affect expectations for the economy Minutes of the last meeting of the Central Bank Was optimistic about growth, not to mention the risk of a recession or a more severe tightening of interest rates.

The focus is also on requests for unemployment assistance in the United States (9:30 am). Refinitiv Consensus points to 215,000 requests.

In Brazil, Eletrobras may begin recording its share offer with CVM and SEC this Thursday, while the Petrobras board of directors decided to delay the EGM merger.

Approved by the Council last night (25). Project Basic Text Controlling ICMS On fuel and energy.

Based on the indicators, the cage (general record of employment and unemployment) for the month of April is released. Itaú hopes that private sector employment in Brazil will continue to grow, and that if the numbers confirm this, it will be the fourth consecutive month of gauge in positive territory. Also focus on April collection data.

See also highlights:

1. Global Scholarship

To us

U.S. futures indices are running stable on Thursday (26), with investors digesting the minutes of the latest Fomc meeting and Nvidia’s disappointing forecasts for the economic benchmark in the technology sector.

Shares of Chipmaker fell nearly 7% in the after-market after the company registered weaker-than-expected guidance in the second quarter. The company’s CFO said Nvidia would slow down hiring.

Similarly, Snowflake Software’s share fell nearly 14% after the company’s operating margin guidance fell short of expectations.

See the performance of futures markets:

  • Dow Jones Futures (US), + 0.18%
  • S&P 500 Futures (US), + 0.07%
  • Nasdaq Futures (US), -0.26%


Asian markets closed without any direction as the Bank of Korea announced its second consecutive interest rate hike.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s statements on stabilizing the economy are still on the landscape’s radar.

“We must work to ensure fair economic growth in the second quarter, reduce the unemployment rate quickly and keep economic activity within a reasonable range,” the prime minister was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua news agency on Wednesday.

  • Shanghai SE (China), + 2.41%
  • Nikkei (Japan), + 1.75%
  • Hong Cheng Index (Hong Kong), + 4.01%
  • Cosby (South Korea), + 1.03%


European markets are also moving closer to stability this morning (26), with investors digesting signs in the minutes of the last Fomc meeting on inflation.

Alert trading for European stocks ended higher on Wednesday as global markets attempted to recover from a widespread setback in the previous session.

Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate from 14% to 11% on the day, citing a slowdown in inflation and a recovery in the ruble. After an extraordinary meeting, policymakers opted for another 300-point cut, the bank’s third cut following an emergency tariff hike of 9.5% to 20% following Russia’s invasion and sanctions on Ukraine.

  • FTSE 100 (UK), + 0.05%
  • DAX (Germany), + 0.49%
  • CAC 40 (France), + 0.71%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy), + 0.21%


With oil prices soaring on Thursday and signs of tight supply, the European Union (EU) is considering plans to ban imports from Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, after it invaded Hungary.

  • WTI oil, + 0.68%, $ 106.08 a barrel
  • Brent crude was up 1.09% at $ 108.76 a barrel
  • Iron ore traded up 4.19% at 869.50 yuan, equivalent to US $ 131.95 on the Dalian Exchange.


  • Bitcoin, -0.53% to $ 39,439.32 (up from 24 hours ago)

2. Table

Today (26) the number of cages (public record of employment and unemployment) for the month of April is estimated. Itaú hopes that private sector employment in Brazil will continue to grow, and that if the numbers confirm this, it will be the fourth consecutive month of gauge in positive territory. Prodesco believes in a strong balance of employment in the formal labor market.

“In a series without seasonal influence, we should note that approximately 200 thousand workers are net hired”, Prodesco projects.


7:53 am: Election poll – Datafolha

8:00 am: Monthly INCC-M

9:30 a.m .: April Cage

9:30 am: Campos Neto attends the first session of the Central Bank Financial Stability Committee (Comef) meeting

10 a.m .: Guedes attends a press conference in Davos

10:30 am: Federal Revenue for April, Refinitiv Consensus R $ 186.9 Billion

United States

9:30 a.m .: Weekly Unemployment Benefits Claims, Refinitiv Consensus Indicates 215,000 Requests

9:30 am: Second GDP estimate for 1st quarter; Refinitiv Consensus indicates a 1.3% decline

9:30 am: Quarterly PCE price index

3. The Chamber approves a plan to regulate ICMS in fuel and energy

The council approved it Wednesday ICMS ceiling of 17% on electricity, fuels and natural gas. The motion was passed with overwhelming support – 403 votes in favor, 10 votes against and 2 abstentions.

To reduce opposition to the move, deputies put in place a temporary stimulus to compensate states and municipalities when the total tax collection fall exceeds 5%. If necessary, this compensation will be made by reducing the debt of these companies with the union. The text still needs to be approved by the Senate.

Bolzanaro bans Pronambe

President Jair Bolzano (PL) signed the agreement yesterday at a ceremony in Palacio do Planaldo, which will create new rules for the National Support Program for Small and Small Businesses (Pronambe).

The proposal authorizes the use of resources already contributed by the Union in the Functional Guarantee Fund (FGO) provided by Pronampe until December 31, 2024, by defining a deadline of 2025 for the withdrawal of unused resources. It is estimated that R $ 50 billion could be borrowed at a new stage of the project.

Tax reform

Veeram says he discusses behind-the-scenes adjustment to the income tax reform proposal as a way to open up debates in the Senate. One possible change would be to reduce the tax rate on the 15% dividend approved by the Chamber to 10%, excluding Simples companies and for-profit companies up to R $ 4.8 million.

Green and yellow house plan

The Ministry of Regional Development (MDR) has confirmed to Estado that it is preparing a set of measures to restructure the Casa Verde e Amarela housing project, which has seen a sharp drop in recruitment due to rising construction costs. The MDR said the immediate increase in subsidies would be between 12.5% ​​and 21.4% as part of efforts to restore household purchasing power. Middle and low-income groups serve through the program. The ceiling for grants will be maintained at R $ 47,500.

4. Govt

Last Wednesday (25), 157 deaths and 6,000 Covid-19 cases were reported in 24 hours in Brazil, according to the Federation of Press Vehicles at 8 p.m.

The moving average of covit deaths in 7 days in Brazil was 105, stable compared to the previous 14 days.

The moving average of new cases in seven days was 14,455, which is 13% less than the 14-day previous level.

The number of people fully vaccinated against goitre in Brazil has reached 165,639,167, equivalent to 77.1% of the population.

The number of people who received the minimum first-dose vaccine reached 178,272,688, or 82.98% of the population.

The booster dose was given to 91,218,006 people or 42.46% of the population.

5. Corporate Radar

Petroprose (PETR3;PETR4)

Petrobras had earlier signed a joint venture with Grepar Participaes, a corporate vehicle jointly owned by Grecor Investments in Participations, Greca Distribuidora de Asfaltos and Holding GV Participações. Agreement to sell Lubricantes e Derivatos de Petroleum do Nordest refinery (LUBNOR) for US $ 34 million.

The state-owned company also said that the appointment of Caio Mario Paes de Andrade, the current Special Secretary to the Ministry of Economy for Debureacratization, Management and Digital Government, to the post of head of the company would be submitted to the internal governance process. Analysis of legal requirements and subsequent exposure of the population group.

Ferreira Goyalho was elected by a majority vote at the April 13, 2022 General Assembly, and if his dismissal is approved by the AGE, the same process will lead to the dismissal of other elected board members. Therefore, the Government should send recommendations to the Council from the other 7 members.

The state-owned company did not provide a date for the meeting.

Anyway (ENEV3)

Inova (ENEV3) claims to have signed with Suzanne (SUZB3Ten-year agreement to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to industrial facilities located in the city of Impratris in Maranhao at an investment of RM530 million. Business distribution is planned for the first half of 2024.

Carrefour (CRFB3)

Carrefour (CRFB3) confirmed the approval of the Big Group acquisition by CAT and estimated that the determined solutions were “significantly lower” than indicated in the complex notice of the college’s oversight, which suggested an approximate waiver. 10% of large group stores.

The Acquisition Control Agreement (ACC) demarcated 14 stores today, including 11 hypermarkets / wholesale stores and three supermarkets / soft discount stores, which accounted for about 3.6% of the total. 6% of stores and Grupo Big’s 2021 revenue.

(With Estado, Reuters and Agncia Brasil)

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