July 20, 2024

US interest rate decision, wages and Petrobras results (PETR3,PETR4): What to watch for the week

3 min read
US interest rate decision, wages and Petrobras results (PETR3,PETR4): What to watch for the week
US interest rate decision, wages and Petrobras results (PETR3,PETR4): What to watch for the week

In the first week of November, the financial market will operate with less uncertainty. But the election of a president who will rule the country for the next four years resolves only part of the doubts about the future of Brazilian politics. Henceforth, agents will focus on names that make government teams, especially in the economy.

It will be a short week due to the All Souls Day holiday on Wednesday (2). B3 will be closed, but overseas markets will be operating at full steam, with another decision on interest rates in the US. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to continue the cycle of monetary tightening.

More than 80% of forecasts tracked by CME Group’s Interest Rate Monitor point to another 75 basis point increase. Thus, US interest rates will fall by 3.7% to 4% per annum. Apart from the conclusion, the market will follow the central bank’s signals for the next meetings – whether there is room to slow the rallies or not.

Indicators are another highlight on the agenda Salary, along with official US labor market data, which will be released on Friday (4). Consensus RestorationThe average of market forecasts points to the creation of 220 thousand job vacancies in October, 43 thousand less than in September.

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The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.6%. Average wages should continue to rise at a rate of 0.3% per year, with an annual adjustment of 4.7%.

in front Salary, as usual, the JOLTS report comes out on Tuesday (1), with September vacancy figures; And the ATP Survey, Job Creation in the Private Sector, Fourth – Consensus Restoration It has predicted 198 thousand vacancies in October.

Still abroad, there are three main highlights on the agenda in Europe: the preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Eurozone, which is expected to grow by 0.2% in quarterly comparison and 2.1% in annual comparison. Restoration. On the same day, consumer inflation data is released.

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank Raised interest rates again 0.75%, and said inflation will remain above target in the long run.

Next Thursday, the Bank of England is due to decide on interest rates. Consensus Restoration And 75 basis points, forecast to increase by 3% per year.

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Cobom minutes and industrial production stand out in Brazil

With a holiday after the second round and a focus on political news, there are few highlights on the agenda of economic indicators in Brazil.

On Tuesday, the report of the last meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy (COBOM) will be released. The central bank kept the key interest rate Selic at 13.75% per annum in a unanimous decision last Wednesday. In the report, the official made slightly higher forecasts for inflation, highlighting the markets’ sensitivity to financial problems.

“But not high enough to indicate a review of current monetary policy”, highlights an Itaú report signed by economist Mario Mesquita. “We expect COBOM to keep its monetary policy unchanged until mid-2023, when it begins to gradually ease its cycle.”

On Tuesday, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) will release industrial production for September. Itaú forecast a monthly drop of 0.3% and an annual increase of 1%. In August, industrial production contracted by 0.6%.

“The manufacturing sector is expected to witness a sharp decline (broadly, most leading indicators will retreat during the month), only partially offset by an increase in mining activity,” the bank’s report said.

Petrobras publishes balance sheet

Quarterly earnings season is also in full swing in Brazil and the US. After the balance sheet is issued Big technologies, Uber and AirBnb stand out in recent weeks, with numbers released on Tuesday. Paypal method on Thursday.

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Here, Thursday’s highlight of the week is the release of Petrobras’ balance sheet (PETR3;PETR4) after the market closes. Other highlights Calendar Lojas Renner (LREN3), CSN (CSNA3) and GPA (PCAR3) Check the schedule for the week below:


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