September 25, 2022
What are the short-term scenarios for the Ukraine war with the recent Russian defeats?

What are the short-term scenarios for the Ukraine war with the recent Russian defeats?

In recent days, information about Ukraine progress In the restoration of the lands occupied by Russia, about 200 days after the start of the invasion of the country.

Ukraine launched an impressive counterattack in the north, recapturing the strategically important area
Kharkiv as the Russian army fled. The Russian army had thin lines of defense focused on victory
Southern area. However, Ukraine counterattacked from the south, capturing important areas around Kherson. Numerous mistakes made by the Russian army allowed the Ukrainian army to re-equip it for a counterattack. ”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a speech late Tuesday night, said about 8,000 square kilometers had been cleared so far, apparently all in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

In a report, Gustavo Medeiros, in charge of the director’s macroeconomic and emerging markets research area, highlighted the assessment of military analysts, who noted that recent developments indicate that the Russian armed forces are on the verge of collapse.

“The harbinger of a Russian defeat could also be a fatal blow to the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin,
Considering the fading the Romanovs faced after Russia’s defeat in the war against Japan in 1905, he points out.

This is a plausible scenario, Medeiros estimates, but one should be cautious, especially regarding the potential for the collapse of the Russian system.

In Ashmore’s assessment, if Putin believes he is losing the war, he will have two options: 1) Escalate escalation with heavy artillery in civilian areas, or even weapons of mass destruction (Putin has said Russia will use nuclear weapons if state sovereignty is potentially threatened) or 2. )) Trying to arrange a hasty peace agreement.

According to Medeiros, the first scenario would reduce the likelihood of a solution to the energy and food crisis before winter, and possibly lead Western countries to increase the breadth and scope of sanctions against Russia. Russia will retaliate by blocking Ukrainian grain exports.

He notes that “commodity prices, which have been declining since May, will accelerate again, threatening the current trend of inflation and increasing the risks of financial instability around the world.”

The second scenario will lead to the opposite effect. A ceasefire and peace deal will likely coincide with the normalization of the flow of goods from Ukraine and some improvement from Russia as well. Commodity prices could drop sharply given that the demand for commodities is declining in 2022 due to higher prices coupled with the ongoing global economic slowdown.

Unfortunately, we consider a ceasefire an unlikely scenario. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains
Committed to restoring all Ukrainian lands, including Crimea. After 200 days of war, the ceasefire will not be popular, either in Ukraine or abroad. It is hard to believe that Russia is ready to allow Ukraine to take back Crimea along with its strategic military base in the Black Sea, when a defeat in the Donbass would be humiliating for Russia. ”

discontent

CNBC reports that there are rumors of discontent in Russia over the war, with even loyal Kremlin supporters skeptical of the conflict on public forums, including state television.

“We were told everything is going according to plan. Does anyone really think that six months ago the plan was to leave? [da cidade de] Balaklia, repelling a counterattack in the Kharkiv region and not taking control of Kharkiv?

Another public figure, former MP Boris Nadezhdin, said Russia would not win the war if it continued to fight as it is, and said there had to be “either large-scale mobilization and war, or a way out”.

Analysts at global risk consulting firm Teneo noted, according to CNBC, that military losses and humiliation for Russian forces “pose risks to President Vladimir Putin’s regime, as domestic criticism of the behavior of the so-called special military operation is growing. aspects.”

“As a result, Putin is facing increasing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the front line, which may include escalating moves or calls to start ceasefire negotiations,” they added.

“Moscow faces a difficult choice right now, I think: face a humiliating defeat in Ukraine — which seems inevitable given its current troop deployments and supply chains — or sue for Peace”. management, in a note on Monday.

After what he hopes will be massive air strikes in Ukraine, Asch said, Putin may try to start “serious” peace talks. “But he will have to hurry,” Asch noted, “because the soil in Ukraine, and perhaps even Moscow, is rapidly changing under his feet.”

Now, thoughts are turning to a possible Russian response, with Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov telling the Financial Times he hopes to launch a counterattack.

Russia had already launched a heavy bombardment of the Kharkiv region on Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister told Reuters it was too early to say that his country had full control over the region.

“The Kremlin’s military history is getting worse,” Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasia Group, said in a note on Monday. “As this continues, he is pressuring Putin to call for a mobilization — likely partial, but still a costly political and social move for the Russian president at home, which would force him to declare war on Ukraine[Russiacurrentlyclassifiesthewarasa’specialoperation’andtacitlyacknowledgethatRussiaisfacingmilitaryproblems”hesaidincommentsviaemaileadmitirtacitamentequeaRússiaestáenfrentandoproblemasmilitares”disseeleemcomentáriospore-mail[تصنفروسياحاليًاالحربعلىأنها”خاصةالعملية”واعترفضمنيًاأنروسياتواجهمشاكلعسكرية”،قالفيتعليقاتعبرالبريدالإلكتروني[atualmenteaRússiaclassificaaguerracomo‘operaçãoespecial’eadmitirtacitamentequeaRússiaestáenfrentandoproblemasmilitares”disseeleemcomentáriospore-mail

For Bremer, Russia’s willingness to put in place “punishment” must be taken into account, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater military targeting of urban centers and, in the worst case, the use of chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to spread mass panic.”

“If there is a potential short-term change in the Russian war in the future, it is an escalation rather than a negotiated progress,” he says.

(With information from CNBC)

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