What do you expect from the weather in November 2021?

The last days of October brought the heat that was absent in the south of the country on most days of the month, which was characterized, especially in the first two weeks of its month, by An increase in the number of days with a temperature below average NS Heavy rain in ParanaIt rained more than 400mm at some points in just the first 15 days of the month.

The atmospheric pattern predicted by MetSul Meteorologia for weather in November mirrors the trend more than was observed at the end of October than at the beginning of October. The scenario will be typical of summer in Brazil and with Effects of La Niña a job Feel in the precipitation system.

October ends with Classic La Niña in the Pacific Ocean With colder-than-average sea surface temperature differences between the central and eastern oceans in the equatorial region. In the central equatorial Pacific, according to the latest report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the temperature deviation was -0.8 ° C, which is the same as observed in the eastern equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. These values ​​correspond to a weak La Niña phenomenon.

What does the weather in november hold in the rain

The trend is below average rainfall in most of southern Brazil during November. The exceptions in the southern region, according to the MetSul analysis, may be regions farther east of Santa Catarina and Parana, although models indicate a dearth of precipitation in these regions. The contribution of moisture from the sea towards the continent must be in favor of frequent and sometimes heavy rains in these regions.

In contrast, in areas to the west of Santa Catarina and in most areas of Rio Grande do Sul, the trend is precipitation below historical standards in November. Thus, areas of the state of Rio Grande do Sul that have already begun to experience less rainfall than usual, such as the far south and west. In this way, the lack of rainfall will increase as soil moisture loss accelerates as the afternoon becomes warmer and the number of hours of sunshine increases as the summer solstice approaches.

In southeast Brazil, there should be erratic rain in São Paulo. Some areas may close the month with above-average volumes, mainly due to isolated storms capable of generating large accumulations in a short period, but in many municipalities rainfall will be either close to or below average. The same scenario is expected in most of the Mato Grosso do Sul region.

Where rain is more expected, with a tendency towards above average precipitation, between several areas of Mato Grosso, Goiás (plus central and northern Goiás), Federal District, most of Minas Gerais, northern Rio de Janeiro (Lagos), Espírito Santo And in areas from the center to southern Bahia. Excess volumes can still occur locally at points between the coasts of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro due to the effects of heavy rains.

In these areas, in a range extending from Mato Grosso to Espírito Santo and Bahia, which includes most of Minas Gerais, accumulations in several locations can be very high with a risk of flooding and landslides in some locations. The scenario is worrying, in particular, in Minas, as it will be an excessively rainy month in different municipalities.

The map above shows the projection of the precipitation anomaly of the US Climate Agency (NOAA/NCEP) CFS (Climate Forecasting System) model available to subscribers in the Maps section of our page with forecasts for up to six months.

In the south, although precipitation tends to be below average in most of the region, it is always important to remember that it enters the period of the year when storms and typical summer rains occur. They are able to generate exceptionally large amounts in a short period at highly localized points. Thus, under such a common condition at this time of year, the rain can end up being above or below average depending on the area of ​​the city.

temperature in november

If September, the first month of climatic spring, still has many characteristics of winter, then October is a typical month in the middle of the season. On the other hand, November brings a noticeable increase in summer characteristics with greater frequency of hot days in the south of the country.

In the Midwest and much of the Southeast, where the highest signs of the year are reached during the dry season in many cities, November weather with increased rainfall usually prevents temperature extremes from occurring. If it starts to get too hot in a day, clouds quickly form with greater development and precipitation, which leads to a drop in temperature, which does not happen between July and September during heat waves with very dry air.

The map above shows the temperature anomaly projection of the CFS (Climate Prediction System) model of US Climate Agency (NOAA/NCEP) And available to the subscriber in the maps section of our page with projections for up to six months.

Models do not indicate significant deviations in November temperature in central and southern Brazil. In the southern region, temperatures in most cities should be slightly above average for the month, but in eastern Santa Catarina and Parana, higher rainfall can cause temperatures to be lower than average.

In the Midwest and Southeast, temperatures for much of the region should be near or above average. The combination of above-average temperature with above-normal precipitation will have the effect of increasing the incidence of thunderstorms at various points, particularly in areas where models indicate precipitation above historical standards.

With La Niña in action, in November weather there is a greater tendency for cold marine air masses, so coastal areas between the coasts of Santa Catarina and Rio de Janeiro can have several days less hot than usual or more pleasant. The same negative phase of the Pacific could result in late incursions of cold for a day or days in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, but nothing exceptional and would have the effect of causing pleasant days without heat, but with minimal casualties in the cities high.