With Selic approaching 8.5% annually, the return on savings accounts is about to change: is it worth the investment?

What does silicate rate It will rise further, and finish the year at least 8.75% in the year, everyone already knows. But what is starting to get onto the radar of investors, especially more traditional investors, is the assessment that this increase will have a direct impact on the reward for savings. Yes, a traditional brochure will again offer a fixed monthly return.

This will happen because, under current rules, every time the prime rate is above 8.5%, savers start receiving a return of 0.50% per month, or 6.17% per year, plus the TR variation (the reference rate, currently zero).

But before talking about how much the savings will pay, it is necessary to understand how much they will return today. Selic It is 7.75% per year, and therefore less than 8.5%. In this case, the savings pay is still equal to 70% of this rate, which today corresponds to a return of 0.44% per month that applies to amounts applied since May 4, 2012, when the new rule came into force.

Yield, which has been consistently less than inflation, was smaller. There in early 2021, when Silish At 2% per year, savers received a bonus of just 0.12% per month (or 1.4% per year).

When the base rate exceeds 8.5%, which has not happened since September 2017, savers will receive 0.50% per month, regardless of what level the base rate reaches. The savings income will be slightly higher than the current income, but on the other hand, Silish It will be at higher levels and may provide the investor with richer returns on other investments fixed income.

“It’s a change for the worse for the saver. Bonuses will be locked at 6% per annum, and with Selic higher, the personal ledger will be farther[than the profitability of other products],” says Michael Ferriato, Insper’s Finance Lab coordinator.

The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) will be held in early December. Focus reports that Selic finished the year at 8.75% annually and reached 9.50% in 2022.

And why does this rule only apply to resources applied as of May 4, 2012? Because up to that date there was only one base for savings offset, which was 6.17% p.a. plus TR variance.

At the time, Selic’s rate was at 9% annually and on a downward trajectory, but the ledger was seen as an obstacle to continued movement to cut rates. There was a fear that investors who were buying government bonds, i.e. those who finance government debt, would move into savings, as the underlying price would fall.

The solution was to create this rule, which affected deposits made from May 2012 onwards – the bonus remaining before that date continued to be paid under the old rule.

For Marcelo Lara, a CFP certified financial planner, not even an entire stock of savings paid under the old rule makes it attractive. “Leaving it in savings accounts is better than leaving resources in a checking account, but, as an investment, it is not an effective financial product,” he says.

Larger than stock funds

Savings is the most traditional investment in Brazil, it has no minimum investment and its income is exempt from income tax. Even with often unhelpful profitability, the stock of this financial instrument is about R$1.031 trillion — higher than equity investment funds, which are R$639.4 billion, according to data from the Federation of Financial Entities and Capital Markets. (Enbema).

Tax relief is attractive, but in general, savings usually catch up to profitability compared to other investments in fixed income. Ferriato explains that the ledger should be compared to similar financial instruments, i.e. low risk, and cites the Treasury as an example.

While savings are exempt from income tax, the Treasury follows the descending schedule of fixed income. If the bond is redeemed before 180 days, the IR is 22.5%. Between 180 and 364 days, 20%. The rate drops to 17.5% if the security is held for 364 to 720 days and 15% for recoveries made after this period.

There is also a keeping fee of 0.25% on the total amount invested, which It will drop to 0.20% from January. Investments of up to R$10,000 in the Treasury are tax-exempt.

“In this case, the Treasury Selic ends up offering a better reward, even when the IRR is 22.5%,” Veriato says.

Back only on birthday

Another comparison can be made with Certificates of Deposit Banks (CDBs), which are bonds issued by banks which, like a savings account, are protected by a Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC) – limited to R$250,000 per investor by a financial institution.

Viriato states that CDBs are also more beneficial than savings as long as they offer a bonus of at least 95% of the CDI (reference for investments in fixed income who follows Selic closely). on the podium TradeMapIt is possible to find some CDB options that pay more than 100% of the CDI and with daily liquidity.

“Savings are also at a disadvantage in this comparison. Investors need to remember that savings accounts have daily liquidity, but the return is only on anniversaries,” the professor continues.

In fact, money invested in savings accounts can be redeemed at any time – in some CDBs it is necessary to wait for maturity. However, the book push only applies to the anniversary date.

For example, for resources invested on October 5th, savers will receive compensation only if redemption takes place after November 5th. in a investment funds And for CDBs, the bonus is paid “proportionately”, that is, the days on which the funds were invested are considered.

“The best alternative for investors is the Treasury Selic, or ultimately, the China Development Bank with daily liquidity and a decent rate of return,” analyzes Lara, a financial planner.

bags

Between January and October, the savings account experienced negative net inflows, that is, where redemptions were greater than contributions, in six months. In the year to October, net recoveries were R$30.8 billion.

These withdrawals occurred at a time when other investment classes raised more money. Anbima data shows that funds from fixed income It is with larger contributions from recoveries of R$255.2 billion and multiple markets, of R$69.7 billion in the cumulative result for the year through October 29. Equity funds have collected less, but are still on the positive side in terms of contributions, with a balance of R$2.6 billion.

This scenario contrasts with what happened in 2020. In a year marked by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, caution prevailed and families managed to boost their economies. The result is that the country’s most traditional investment generated cumulative net inflows of R$166.3 billion last year, the highest net worth of a savings account ever recorded since the start of the historical streak, in 1995.

The result may be the emergency aid contribution, which totaled about R$300 billion last year, because recipients without the urgent need to use the resources may have left the money in the savings account.

And although there is not the most attractive income, it is worth noting that savings is one of the sources of funds for real estate financing within the housing finance scheme (SFH), which ensures more attractive financing rates for the borrower.