Outlook's second view of 2025 -Bank of Canada

Survey results in the second quarter 2025. |Strength 22.2 |21. July 2025

Pulse of the business Outlook is carried by passenger, video and telephone interviews from 8-28 May 20 2025. The company editorial online.The last results are from April, May and June 20.The publication of this quarter also includes results of the Management Council search as a special consultations.

- Tariffs and relative uncertainty have a major impact on the emergence of businesses due to ripple effects on the economy of Canada and the world.

- And selling Olimcroks continues to think because of the destructive stress of companies - especially between the navigation tool - because a few things are directly damaged by existing taxes.

- Insecurity continues to lead to a chance of employment and investment.Most companies expect to maintain the current level of staff and limit regular investment in the next 12 months.

- For some, the cost increases and the uncertainty of the business have been in operation.Victim companies see the worst needed and the ability to send the competition to their customers' ability to send costs, although most are planning a few more steps.

- Protest for the buttons was returned until the reports reported in late 2024.

The tariff impact have materialized, but the expectations of future impact

Tariffs and trade voltages weigh the views of many companies' views.

At the same time, the form has been displayed and the worst business they think in the last quarter surrounded by the past.

Chart 1: fewer businesses than last quarter expecting negative effects from tariffs

Last quarter, firms describe unexpected economic strustic environment that was difficult for the next year's theme.The weak firms consider what is difficult.

However, the uninterrupted financial, economic and political conditions remains the next rates that directly affect Canadian business.

Business views, although it has still failed, have improved the rapid decline in March and April 2025 (Figure 2).Both the old and back -up and recently appear on retailers and non -retailers' views at an early stage of the business crisis.2024, expressing constant concerns about business tension.

Graph 2: Business delivery has been improved from the lowest

Weak demands in broad meaning

Commerced 'at the condition of charge considering the second quarter of 2025. SErfields are subject to the indicator of the above sections inserted an actual thanpired engineer (e.borders, which is the separate carriages with the sale section, which germly shove the separate of the handzilizing of the handzzle dinzen, such:

- Missing costs of services and capital goods by business customer.

- Consumer low or suspicious consumer, consumers may start lower

- Outlook for Housing Sector is weak

- Prospects of soft sales of oil and gas companies due to impaired pressure on global oil prices

For the trading selling out of close sale clearly indicates the appearance of shipment outside the shipment out of this year before

Graph 3: Future sales companies are weak

However, the rates for the direct impact on the perspectives of the companies are less serious than the first quarter.The prognosis has improved among the companies strongly affected by the commercial tension, as the rates that have materialized so far are based less than those that are afraid of the year.It reflects in the improved expectations of export sales growth (diagram 4).However, in special consultations with bank employees, exporters currently find sectoral rates in the United States, including steel manufacturers and aluminum products and companies in the automotive industry, continue to report.

Diagram 4: Outlux for export sales improved

Energy plans must be stuck

Most companies reported how physical and work skills are enough.Yellow lines).There is a little test that the company has faced the difficulty of searching

Chart 5: Most traders have enough skills

Reserved investments of companies remain suppressed this quarter because the situation was significantly below their long -term average.The number of companies reduces its investment plans or sets new investments for:

- Soft asks

- Continuous uncertainty

- the ability to be enough

Instead of increasing their investment or increasing their efficiency, focusing on regular care (graphs 6).However, it is expected that less, fee and trade tension investment plans will be negatively affected compared to the previous quarter.

Diagram 6: Investment plans are focused on maintaining existing capital

Similarly, contracting intentions are subjugated.The actions of the companies they hire to achieve the expected sales increases, to fill in vague positions or to maintain an excess hand -in -investment.However, fewer companies than the last quarter expect their rates to weigh their recruitment plans.Researching the expectations of the Canadian consumer of the bank that works in trade sensitive sectors, the worries of the work are still high, but in the last quarter.

When demand for lowffs, many companies would drive it alone if they have a searchable or long -term experience.

Graph 7: Many companies want work to be fixed

Expectations for wage growth next year (Chart 8).

Graph 8: The most interesting desires to grow up to continue lower

Remains pressure from commercial tensions

The cost of the cost is continuing to spread with half of the companies reported the expenditure on taxes.

In this context, the dates and trade stress still are still expected to increase the increase in the input prices.

Diagram 9: on money, entered input expectations to accelerate the speed.

Increasing the Tarif-Delest Cost to the prospects of the corporates of the companies enlightened prices.However, competitive pressures and the current vulnerability in the previous business is continuing businessing their costs for customers.As a result many businesses expect their selling prices in the coming year and a similar year and did last year (charts 10).Prize shops, a few of these costs, which exhibits their professional provides and try to preserve the market elevation (chart 11).

Figure 10: Companies expecting stable growth in their sale prices

Chart 11: Many companies absorb Tarff with their margins

Short -term inflation expectations rose to the end of 2024 again in the last quarter (Diagram 12).As in the last quarter, tariffs are the main driving forces of inflation expectations, but companies report that direct rise price pressure is partially compensated by indirect tariff effects - that is, dysflationist inflation expectations for longer horizons are now a little higher, but causes the bank to remain in the target area.

Figure 12: A short -term inflation of the enterprise returned to the level of 2024 at the end of 2024

Box 1: Business and consumers report that insecurity that affects their planning

Almost half of the participants in a Canadian commercial bank investigation reported that they predict their business situation in a nearby period.Companies talked about creating a hard view in the current environment because of the many layers of uncertainty.

Another source of energy is the lack of customers by the market dispute.

When faced with high uncertainty changes business policy policy and economic conditions.

- Companies the feet of companies shortened to their investments or worktops (graphic 1-a and panel b).

- These include employment;Companies share the level of staff at the top of the survey.

- Similarly, many businesses are talking about ongoing investment plans, but to prevent capital spending on the development of capacity.

- Some firms are working to risk their balances to allow financial injuries to be better.It includes actions such as paying for lust, keeping more money and increasing the allowances for financial intermediaries.

- During the awareness of the Bank's Control and the Council's Quebec Council Council, Newfound and Labrador Council and other suppliers and other suppliers and other suppliers and other suppliers and other suppliers.

Figure 1-A: Infinitely weighing uncertainty in economic decisions, consumer spending and commercial deposits

Figure 1-A: Uncertainty in financial decisions, consumers' costs and investment in trade

- 1. For more information 'For more information' Decisions of more information and see the economy of the broader, "for more information about hard and normal (July 2025). [ਸੀਂ

The results of the research report on the opinions expressed by the respondents and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Bank of Canada.

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Canadian Business Leaders Bank is a study of 700 to 1,000 Canadian businesses that respond to one of three short quaries every month.Crondis, c.