IPCC report warns Northeast is drying up with climate change – 07/03/2022
6 min read
In the midst of the war between Ukraine and Russia, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) launched new report Warning of “irreversible” effects if humanity does not stop global warming. In this context, scientists list the problems already affecting the environment and point to the northeast as one of three regions of the planet that are undergoing the process of drying up rivers.
The document maps a global trend of mean annual flow of rivers made by 7,250 observatories between 1971 and 2010. “Some areas are drying out,” the document says, and puts into the scenario, as well as northeastern Brazil, southern Australia and the Mediterranean region. average.
For the researchers, this is “mainly due to large-scale changes in precipitation, a factor that influences evaporation; and changes in snowfall time and melt accumulation due to higher temperatures.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does not stop there. She says changes in these areas will be more severe if the temperature continues to rise in the coming years. “Any climate-induced changes in the flow and connection regimes of rivers are expected to alter species composition, as well as social impacts,” the document says.
An increase in the frequency and severity of droughts can lead to permanent rivers being cut off; Intermittent rivers are disappearing, threatening freshwater fish in habitats already characterized by heat and drought.
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
A map published in the IPCC report puts the northeast as a dry region
Photo: IPCC / Reproduction
dryness and heat
The semi-arid region (in the northeast and north of Minas Gerais) is a biome that has already felt the power of the so-called extreme events. Between 2012 and 2017, the region experienced The biggest drought in history. This has led to environmental consequences, such as animal deaths, migrations, and crop and vegetation problems.
The situation continues to deteriorate, according to researchers interviewed by the column.
Professor and researcher Emerson Carlos Soares, of the Agricultural Sciences Campus at Ufal (Federal University of Alagoas), says deforestation as one of the problems affecting temperature in the region.
“We are replacing the rich vegetation of the Katatja, which results in more eroded areas – which is also related to the issue of reduced rainfall. Thus, the pastures invade and the areas become brittle soil. Without rainfall lies the difficulty in agriculture and for the economy of the area,” he explains .
Costa is the coordinator of an annual project called the Scientific Expedition down São Francisco (a region of the river dividing Sergipe and Alagoas). He says the basin of Brazil’s largest 100% river has gone through a seven-year period of little rain, reducing flow and causing impacts.
In addition, we are also seeing an increase in drought here, which leads to more desert areas, with worsening soil conditions. According to scientific articles, we have experienced a loss of within 30% of the vegetation cover in recent years in the semi-arid region.
Emerson Soares, Oval
May 23, 2014 – A man walks along the high dry bed of the São Francisco River, in Pau Preto (MG)
Photo: Lunae Parracho / Reuters
According to a meteorologist and coordinator of LAPS (Satellite Image Processing Laboratory) in Oval, Humberto Barbosa, the new IPCC report reinforces the concern already expressed in the first part of the analysis by the group of scientists, published In August 2021.
The second part presents a difficult choice: Will humanity accept it? the current situation The catastrophe and the uncertain and unpleasant future it leads to, or take charge and choose a better future,” he says.
Barbosa has study 2016 is mentioned in the chapter on the Northeast in the new IPCC report. The text, which was published in the Jornal de Ambientes Áridos, has already raised concerns about the lack of rain in the area.
According to him, the main issue in the coming years is the warming of the oceans, which will have a direct impact on the region. “The Atlantic Ocean is the hottest ocean in recent decades, since the 1960s and 1970s. This will have an effect on the distribution of precipitation in the region, affecting the entire hydrological cycle. In other words, droughts in the semi-arid region will increase in intensity and frequency due to these characteristics “, According to him.
As for the coastal area in the northeast, this can lead to heavy rains. It’s a bit paradoxical, but it’s exactly what we’ve seen and it will only get more intense in the coming years. The distribution of precipitation will not be linear, and there may be areas with severe droughts and in the same state with areas with floods.
Humberto Barbosa, lapis lazuli
Experts say the changes are already visible
Those who live in the semi-arid region are already feeling the problems. “This change is already visible, and families are aware that there is a change in the rain regime: it is rare and poorly distributed, both in time and place. At the moment, it was supposed to rain, but it rains a little,” says Paulo Pedro de Carvalho, from the NGO Pernambuco. Kaynatinga: “The temperatures are too high.”
According to him, over the years this process has led to soil degradation, including native species that cannot tolerate warming. “In many places it is no longer worth investing in the soil for agriculture, because it no longer produces food – neither pastures nor animals. Even in this great drought, even the traditional Katenga trees – which we have never seen – died because of the lack of moisture and the high temperature the heat “.
May 15, 2012 – Residents of Espinhiro Village in Takarato (PE) suffer from dry mud
Photo: Beto Macário/UOL
The study indicates areas of recovery
Professor Carlos Roberto Fonseca, from the Department of Environment at the UFRN (Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte), is a co-author of study Published Thursday is titled “Caatinga’s Dry Forest Restoration Priorities: Landscape Resilience, Connectivity, and Biodiversity Value.”
It is stated in the document that 9% of the Katinga basins are considered a top priority for restoration and need government action to achieve this.
“We know today that more than half of the Katinga region has already been cleared. The remainder is distributed in about 42,000 parts of isolated forests that are in an advanced state of disturbance due to hunting, logging, excess livestock or inappropriate use of fire,” he says.
Additionally, Fonseca reports that climate change is beginning to put pressure on species now at risk of extinction.
They are threatened in Katenga:
- 31 species of mammals,
- 22 frogs
- 30 reptiles
- 65 birds,
- 350 species of plants *
* Listed in the Red Book of Endangered Plants of Brazil.
“In addition, all of these changes have caused people’s level of water and food security to decrease,” he adds.
Serra da Capivara National Park (PI)
Photo: DanielDeGranville/AcervoFundaçãoBoticario
Faced with this alarming scenario, the world last year entered into the United Nations Decade for Ecosystem Restoration (UN). “This is a global effort to prevent biodiversity loss and global climate change and to advance social justice,” Fonseca says.
He states that, with this procedure, it is already possible to see the international resources available for restoration. “Even in Brazil, we have seen the emergence of resources for this,” he says. “The problem is that if we don’t prioritize, these resources can be spent without reaching any goal.”
He says that if put to good use, the resources applied to restoration can yield excellent results.
Imagine that we discovered one area that, if restored and protected, could prevent the extinction of 116 plant species. By prioritizing restore and save, we can really make a difference.
Carlos Roberto Fonseca, UFRN
“Entrepreneur. Music enthusiast. Lifelong communicator. General coffee aficionado. Internet scholar.”
:strip_icc()/s04.video.glbimg.com/x720/11792055.jpg)
:strip_icc()/s03.video.glbimg.com/x720/11786998.jpg)
