Lula’s government projects registered a trade surplus of $84.7 billion

The slight increase in exports and imports of depressed products in recent months brought the MDIC project (Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services) to a record trade surplus (exports minus imports) of $84.7 billion in 2023.

The projection is updated every 3 months. If confirmed, the surplus would be 37.7% higher than the positive balance of US$61.525 billion recorded in 2022, the best result so far in history.

The trade balance should rise because imports will fall more than exports compared to the results of 2022. Government exports amount to $330 billion this year, down 1.2% from the $334.1 billion the country exported. last year. On the other hand, imports are expected to reach $245.2 billion, a decrease of 10% compared to $272.6 billion purchased from abroad in 2022.

Compared to the previous forecast, which was made in April, both exports and imports rose slightly. Regarding the first prediction, there was an increase of about $5 billion in imports as well as in exports. Expectations are compatibleannounced the Foreign Trade Intelligence and Statistics Undersecretary of the Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade, Herlon Brandao.

Factors

According to MDIC, there are two factors behind the record balance in 2023. On the one hand, the prices of energy commodities, such as oil, and materials such as fertilizers, are on a downward trend after reaching a peak at the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, a slowdown in the economy should cause a drop in imports, due to falling consumption.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has affected imports in recent months. International fertilizer prices fell by 55.2% in June compared to the same month last year. The average price of imported fuel decreased by 40.4% in the same comparison. The average price of wheat, another product that Brazil imports in large quantities, decreased by 18.6%.

With information from Agência Brasil.