June 18, 2024

New York futures fell slightly ahead of the big banks’ results. Brazil retail data and more highlights

6 min read
New York futures fell slightly ahead of the big banks’ results.  Brazil retail data and more highlights

US futures are running with slight losses on Friday (14), a day after the US PPI confirmed a cooling in inflation shown in the CPI on Wednesday (12), adding to the Fed’s less aggressive bets. (Federal Reserve) and led to an increase in stock markets on Wall Street the previous day.

Investors are preparing for the start of the earnings season for the second quarter of 2023 for American companies, as major banks announce their earnings, starting this morning. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will release their numbers before the market opens. The first earnings should provide more information about the health of the US economy and set the tone for earnings season.

Investors are still awaiting import prices for June and preliminary results for July from the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence report, both of which are due this morning.

Continue after the announcement

In Brazil, retail sales data for May was released. The Refinitiv consensus indicates stability in sales compared to April and year-over-year growth of 1.95%.

1. Global Scholarships

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US index futures fell on Friday morning, reversing part of overnight gains, as investors prepare to receive quarterly results from major banks.

Continue after the announcement

On the monetary policy front, market players believe there is less chance that the Fed will raise rates again after its policy meeting on July 26, after weaker-than-expected producer prices on Thursday, which followed lower-than-expected consumer prices on Wednesday.

The view remains almost unanimous at 92.4% that the Fed will raise the interest rate again at its July meeting from 5.00% -5.25% to 5.25% -5.50%.

Watch how the futures markets performed:

Continue after the announcement

  • Dow Jones Futures (US), -0.13%
  • S&P 500 (US) Futures, -0.08%
  • Nasdaq Futures (US), +0.01%

Asia

Asian markets closed higher with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei after weaker-than-expected US inflation data, adding to optimism that inflation may decline without weakening the labor market.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.21% in the Friday session, extending the rally seen on Thursday.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 0.04%, while the Kospi Index in South Korea rose 1.43% to close at 2,628 points, leading the gains in the region.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell slightly to end at 32,391 points as investors digested a measure of industrial production for the month of May.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.78%, ending a full week of gains after the government appointed Deputy Central Bank Governor Michelle Bullock as the new Reserve Bank of Australia governor to succeed Philip Lowe.

Singapore’s economy, in turn, grew by 0.7% in the second quarter of the year, avoiding a technical recession.

  • Shanghai SE (China), +0.04%
  • Nikkei (Japan), -0.09%
  • Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +0.33%
  • Kosby (South Korea) +1.43%
  • ASX 200 (Australia), +0.78%

Europe

European markets run directionless on Friday, after five positive sessions. The Stoxx 600 posted its longest daily winning streak in nearly three months on Thursday.

Technology stocks maintained recent gains, rising 0.55%, while telecom stocks fell 0.7% after Nokia cut sales and margin forecasts, and Ericsson’s disappointing results.

On the data front, German wholesale producer prices fell 2.9% year-on-year in June, marking the biggest drop in three years. Prices decreased by 0.2% from the previous month.

German consumer price inflation is falling but remains high as the economy has entered a recession.

  • FTSE 100 (UK), +0.12%
  • DAX (Germany), -0.17%
  • CAC 40 (France), +0.34%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy), -0.13%
  • Stokes 600 + 0.06%

goods

Oil prices fell after a positive opening as investors eyed supply shortages amid problems in Libya and Nigeria and easing inflation in the United States, which markets hope will end interest rate hikes in the world’s largest economy.

Iron ore prices in China rose for the fourth consecutive session.

  • WTI, down -0.22%, at $76.72 a barrel
  • Brent crude, down -0.21%, at $81.19 a barrel
  • Iron ore traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange rose 2.54% to 849 yuan, equivalent to 118.98 US dollars.

bitcoin

  • Bitcoin, -1.37% to $31,211.07 (24 hours ago)

2. Schedule

Today it is the turn of the retail index. The Refinitiv consensus indicates stability in sales compared to April and year-over-year growth of 1.95%. Itau expects a monthly decline of 0.5%, with most sectors slowing on the sidelines.

Brazil

9 a.m.: Retail sales in May. The Refinitiv consensus expects to be stable compared to April and up 1.95% yoy

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9 a.m.: President Lula meets with Minister of Civil House Rui Costa, Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad, Minister of Management and Innovation in Public Services Esther Dweck, and Minister of the Secretariat of Institutional Relations Alexandre Padilla.

10:30 a.m.: Lola participates in the Novo Mais Médicos signing ceremony

3 p.m.: Haddad participates in an interview with journalist Monica Bergamo – columnist for the newspaper Folha de São Paulo.

United States of America

9:30 am: Import prices for June

11 a.m.: Consumer Confidence in Michigan

2 p.m.: Baker Hughes rig count

3. Economic news

Pacheco says BC’s president should attend the Senate on August 10

The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said on Thursday that the head of the central bank, Roberto Campos Neto, should appear before the Chamber of Deputies on August 10 to give clarifications to senators. Scheduling the hearing with Campos Neto is part of a move by the Senate to push for a lower base rate.

Pacheco noted that Article 11 of the Home Rule Act says that each semester, the BC president must present himself to the board, in public questioning, to give explanations on decisions made in a period of six months.

4. Political news

Celso Sabino will head the Ministry of Tourism

The Planalto Palace has confirmed that Federal Deputy Celso Sabino (União Brasil-PA) will be the new Minister of Tourism. The call was formalized on Thursday, after a meeting between Congressman, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Institutional Relations Minister, Alexandre Padilla, at the presidential office in Brasilia.

Sabino will replace Daniela Carneiro in this position. Appointed since the beginning of Lula’s government, Daniela Carneiro was the most voted federal deputy in the state of Rio de Janeiro and should resume her term in the Chamber of Deputies. She is married to the mayor of Belford Roxo, Aguinho (Republican), an important ally of Lula in the Baixada Fluminense district in the 2022 election campaign.

The change in the portfolio has been speculated since last month, and was indeed sealed, last week, during another meeting held at the Planalto Palace, this time with President Lula, Daniela Carneiro, Aguño, and Minister Alexandre Padilla.

Barroso says he did not want to offend Bolsonaro voters in a speech at the University of New England

Minister Luis Roberto Barroso, of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), said last Thursday (13) that he did not want to offend the voters of former President Jair Bolsonaro by using the phrase “we defeat Bolsonarianism” during the opening of the 59th Congress. National Union of Students (UNE), in Brasilia. Barroso said in a note to the press that he respects all voters and politicians.

5. Corporate Radar

BRF (BRFS3)

BRF (BRFS3) has raised R$5.4 billion in the main follow-up held in the country so far this year. The owner of the Sadia and Perdigão brands reported demand for supply was 20% higher than expected and issued 600 million shares at $9 per share, 5.7% below the closing value (R$9.54) in B3 negotiations.

Resources bring convenience to BRF’s capital structure, which is a frequent face of market concern. Moving on, the company estimates a 1.3x decrease in leverage (the ratio between net debt and Ebitda). At the end of the first quarter of the year, the indicator was 3.35 times.

Target (GOLL4)

Gol (GOLL4) expects a loss per share (LPA) of approximately R$1.05 and a loss per share of American Deposit (LPADS) of approximately $0.45.

Ebitda’s margin in the quarter is estimated to be around 21%.

Passenger unit revenue (PRASK) for the second quarter is expected to be approximately 9% compared to the second quarter of 2020.

Santander (SANB11)

Santander (SANB11) has approved an interest-on-equity (JCP) distribution in the aggregate of R$1.5 billion, which is equal to 0.19206934435 per common share, 0.21127627878 per preferred share, and R$0.40334562313 per unit.

Shareholders registered in the company’s records at the end of July 20, 2023 will be entitled to obtain a JCP.

Camille (CAML3)

Camil (CAML3) reported net income of R$64 million in the first quarter of 2023 (Q1-23), which is 33.9% less than the amount recorded in the same period of 2022.

Total EBITDA was R$ 198.5 million in Q1 2023, down 18.8% from Q1 2022.

Ebitda’s margin was 7.5% between January and March of this year, down 2.7 percentage points (pp) compared to the margin recorded in the first quarter of 2020. Total net revenue reached R$ 2.654 billion in the first quarter of this year, a growth of 10.7% compared to the same phase in 2022.

(with Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)

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