Scientists at the University of Porto in Portugal have conducted alarming research that suggests this could happen from Earth Getting into an irreversible chaotic state due to the impact of human activities on the climate system.
The study, which is based on the theories of superconductivity, reveals that there is a critical point beyond which it is impossible to restore the climate balance of the planet.
published In April 2022 on the arXiv pre-release server Pending peer review, the paper notes that a limited level of human activity can lead to “Earth greenhouse”, from which there is no return.
The effects of climate change, such as droughts, heat waves and extremes, are widely known, however, if the Earth system enters into chaotic behavior, we will lose all hope of solving this problem, warns the physicist Orvo Bertolami.
The study addresses the proposal of a new geological era, the Anthropocene, in which human activity caused a significant impact on the Earth’s global system, which consists of the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. The researchers modeled the transition from the Holocene to the Anthropocene as a phase transition, using the Ginzburg-Landau theory, which was originally developed to model superconductivity.
Phase transitions are common in nature, and previous research shows that it is possible to predict climate change using this model. The results indicate that we can follow a relatively predictable trajectory, Which results in a stable climate with an average temperature higher than todaywhich already has serious consequences for humans and animals.
However, in the most extreme scenario, the Earth would fall into chaos, with seasonal fluctuations and unpredictable weather extremes, making it impossible to mitigate and restore a stable climate.
The researchers emphasize that a transition to a chaotic climate is not inevitable, but it is necessary to consider it as a real possibility to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change and manage the Earth system in the future.
Based on a logistic map describing the limited growth of variables such as the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, they investigated different possible pathways for human activity and how this would affect the Earth’s climate.
As scientists continue to analyze data and improve climate models, the results of this study remind us of the urgent need to act and promote important changes in our environmental habits and policies.
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