February 6, 2023
Adriano Machado/ Reuters

The Central Bank evaluates the review of the savings income account

Brasilia – the central bank Study to change the correction rule saving account, the main source of real estate financing and to this day remains the most popular investment by Brazilians.

This procedure is not at present, but will require a deadline for public consultation and a long and phased transition period. But the speech of the President of British Columbia, Roberto Campos Netto, revealed ongoing studies, during an event in the real estate sector, the topic of savings bonuses ended up in the discussion on the eve of the board meeting. MPC (COBOM)When the rate was Selic today at 7.75%, may exceed 8.5%.

According to the established rule, if interest rates exceed this level, the passbook will earn 0.5% per month in addition to the reference rate (currently zero). With a Selic rate of less than 8.5%, the savings yield is 70% of the Selic rate plus TR. This model has been around since 2012 and was adopted at the time to allow interest rates to be lowered at that time.

BC wants the savings to have a correction closer to that used to finance real estate projects. Today, there is a mismatch in terms and indexes. The brochure, which contains short-term liquidity (that is, savers can withdraw money at any time), is also a source of real estate credit, generally long-term, between 20 and 30 years.

This mismatch requires a high liquidity cushion (reserve) to counteract drawdowns. The point analyzed by BC is that if savings has an indicator that is closer to the indicator used for financing, then it will not be necessary to make a large reserve, freeing up more resources for the system.

BC has had a study group for over a year dedicated to making a new savings formula that works best as a fundraiser and converter. Although the change requires caution and great care in its implementation, it could be announced in 2022, during the Bolsonaro government. The matter was discussed with the banks.

“With Selic at 2%, we were worried about the high rates of migration to savings. With the rise in the interest rate, we were concerned about the influx of money from savings,” Campos Neto emphasized at the event, when this was provoked by a participant who questioned the rise in mandatory savings deposits He suggested creating a handbook indexed to the IPCA.

According to the chief Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC)And Jose Carlos Martins, This change is a long-standing requirement in this sector. “Years ago, all Cbic proposals had a price index and not the TR index, which is manipulated by the government,” he says.

NS Rodrigo Scavioli, Head of allotment and funds XPHowever, the dynamics of the relationship between Brazilian savings and investors are changing and investment is increasingly being used as a “stop station” for funds spent for a short period or as an emergency reserve. An easily accessible and redeemable tool that the saver chooses even if he loses his profitability.

“I dare say that last year’s savings was a ridiculous fundraising goal and should have been the opposite. My perception is that savings was seen as a safe place when everyone was afraid of the pandemic at a time of risk aversion,” he says.