The riyal is the seventh largest rising currency against the dollar since the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of the year, the riyal has risen by 9.2%, second A survey conducted by Austin Ratings, which analyzed 120 coins and took into account the closing price on June 19th.
Today, the dollar recorded a slight increase of 0.22%, quoted at 4.786 Brazilian reals, at 12:30 pm. But yesterday, the nineteenth, it closed at R$4,776, which is the lowest value since May 27 of last year, when the currency was priced at R$4.73. Follow the real time price here.
The ten most appreciated coins this year
- Sri Lankan rupees: 21.2%
- Pesos/Colombia: 16.5%
- Pesos/Mexico: 14.4%
- Dinar / Iraq: 11.4%
- fortnite/ Hungary: 9.8%
- colon/ Costa Rica: 9.3%
- Real/Brazil: 9.2%
- Lek/Albania: 8.6%
- zlotys/ Poland: 7.8%
- Leo/Moldova: 7.1%
Source: Austin Rankings, January 3 to June 19, 2023
Why did these currencies rise?
Emerging countries’ major currencies rose as US interest rate hikes stalled last week. This explains Alex Agostini, chief economist at Austin Ratings.
With interest rates steady in the United States, investors are more willing to take risks in emerging countries. The entry of the dollar in these countries ends with an appreciation of the value of local currencies.
And what is happening in Brazil?
In Brazil, the interest rate, the Selic, should only start to fall August. For the next meeting that ends tomorrow, the 21st, experts expect the central bank to maintain the current rate at 13.75% per annum. A lot of investors come here to take advantage of this high rate of interest, and bring more dollars into the country.
In addition, investors are more optimistic about the Brazilian economy. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s upgraded Brazil’s rating last week. For the first time in four years, Standard & Poor’s raised Brazil’s credit rating outlook from stable to positive (BB).
A positive outlook means that the agency may raise the country’s rating further in the next two years. This is very important to attract more investors to the country, according to Agostini. “The approval of the new tax rule helped, too,” he says. See here other reasons for the rise of the riyal against the dollar.
What can happen to the dollar and the riyal from now on
In the coming weeks, the dollar is likely to fall further. That’s what an Austin ratings expert thinks.
Goldman Sachs believes the fair value of the coin is around R$4.30. “We estimate that the dollar will drop to R$4.60 in three months, to R$4.40 in six months and stay at R$4.40 in 12 months.” The previous estimate was RL 4.90, RL 4.85 and RL 4.80, respectively.
But there are those who disagree. Claudia Moreno, an economist at C6 Bank, predicted that the dollar would reach R$5.30 by the end of the year. What works against the appreciation of the Brazilian currency, according to her, is government spending. “The debt is already very high. The higher it goes, the higher the dollar. It would be nice if the debt remained stable, but it actually needs to go down,” says Claudia.
The central bank believes that the dollar will reach R$5.00. The central bank’s Focus publication, released yesterday, estimates that the currency will reach R$5.00 by the end of the year. For next year, the projections are R$5.10 and R$5.25 in 2026.
Is it time to buy or invest?
Yes, if the idea is to travel or do some applications, the price is now below expectations and can be a good deal. See here how to buy travel dollars
And learn here how to invest in dollars.
Aulão: How to get out of savings safely to make more money
Savings are the most used investment by most Brazilians. But there are other options that may be more useful and pay more.
For those who are starting to invest, UOL You will have a series of four straightforward chapters on how to diversify your portfolio. The series begins on the first of June.
The topic will be “How to Get Out of Savings Safely to Make More Money”. We will talk about the investment options that exist, how to evaluate your investment profile according to your risk tolerance, how to diversify your portfolio and how to know if your investments are in line with your plans and dreams.
The first two classes are already on the air. The first episode talks about the main investments, how they work and what are their risks. Watch the full chapter here. The second episode shows how to know your investor profile to better invest your money, see here.
Watch aulão on chat with the specialist, the live program from UOLEvery Thursday from 4:00 pm to 4:40 pm.
Subscribers to UOL You can re-watch the chapters as many times as you like. At the end, subscribers will also get an exclusive guide on how to invest beyond savings. Sign here and participate!
The last series of chatting with a specialist was about how to get passive income in your account through investments. To learn more, access the special “Passive Income Investing Guide,” exclusive to subscribers.
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