5 state disputes have more chances of getting around in the second round

If the latest polling scenarios are faithfully reflected this coming Sunday (October 2, 2022), 13 states will contest second-round competitions for the governor. In 5 of these cases, the gap between first and second places is up to 10 percentage points – increasing the chance of a final turn around on October 30th.

Survey 360 . force The most recent opinion polls recorded in . have been collected TSE (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) made a comparison with the date Government unrest since the 1990 elections, the first post-democratization. 31 rounds were recorded (when the candidate who finished the first round was second turn and win controversy in the second round).

History shows that the phenomenon is more common when the difference in the ballot box between contestants in the first round is in the range of 0.1 to 5 percentage points (17 rounds in 37 disputes by this margin). And it becomes rarer with increasing distance.

In elections where the distance was between 5 and 10 points, there were 9 occasions when the score changed between the first and second rounds. Only 5 elections saw this type of change in a scenario with an advantage of more than 10 points.

The year with the most innings was, relatively speaking, 1998. At that time, of the 13 second-round disputes, 5 of them ended in second-place wins in the first round of elections. Read the history since the 1990 elections in the chart below:

With these margins in mind, the 360 . force The odds of a turnaround in state elections are ranked in highAnd the modified And the a littlerespectively, depending on the distances projected by voting intent in each of the Union’s 27 units.

Below, an infographic containing data from all second-round disputes since 1990, broken down into 3 categories of distances between the two highest-scoring candidates in the first round: From 0.1 to 5 points Percentages of 5 to 10 And the More than 10 points.

If the current polls are reflected in the opinion polls, the electoral races in Ceará and Santa Catarina focus the greatest chances of observing the turnaround in the second round.

There is a tie both in dispute Captain Wagner (Brazil federation) and Elmano de Freitas (PT) by Ceará Government (31% X 31%) and Government Carlos Moses (Republicans) and Jorginho Melo (PL) by the Government of Santa Catarina (20% x 20%). The difference, in both cases, is 0 percentage points – which is configured high chance turn or turn.

Attend Alagoas, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo average expectations turn or turn. In these cases, the distance between the first and second places is up to 10 percentage points.

The state of São Paulo, the country’s largest electoral college, is on the threshold between the middle and low classes. Fernando Haddad (PT) has 31% of voting intentions, while Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), at 21%, associate themselves with a margin of error with Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 20%.

Ibanes Rocha (MDB-DF), Helder Barbalho (MDB-PA), Mauro Mendes (Brazil-MS Union), Ronaldo Chiado (Union Brazil-GO) and Renato Casagrande (PSB-ES) They have a 30-point advantage over their opponents, and today, they will be re-elected in the first round by a wide margin.

The same goes for Fatma Bezira (in English), in Rio Grande do Norte, son mouse (PSD), in Parana, Wanderley Barbossa (Republicans), in Tocantins, Carlos Brandao (PSB), in Maranhão, and Gladson Camille (PP) in Acre. Referees are more than 20 points away from the nearest competitor and may also be re-elected on Sunday.

ACM Netto (União Brasil), in Bahia, and Marilia Aris (PSB), at Pernambuco, also reduced his chances of beating him in the eventual second round – although the former Salvador mayor had the difference in Jerome Rodriguez (in English) Shortening throughout September.

methodology

a 360 . force Considered the latest research Registered with TSE in each unit of the union. In some cases, priority has been given to studies of companies already incorporated into the market, provided that the surveys were conducted at close dates.

The polls collected are registered with the Electoral Court with the following numbers:

B.C.E.-03861/2022; AL-01435/2022; AP-04681/2022; A.m-08091/2022; BA-05576/2022; EC-09929/2022; defender-08176/2022; ES-08455/2022; he goes-09662/2022; bad-04923/2022; MT-09789/2022; Ms-01137/2022; MG-08517/2022; shovel-09000/2022; PB-01979/2022; Public relations-07440/2022; Foot-03933/2022; IP-08397/2022; Royal Jordanian-06442/2022; RN-09487/2022; very funny-04810/2022; RO-00204/2022; RR-07152/2022; SC-07903/2022; SP-03475/2022; if-02694/2022; And the to me-09696/2022.

If there is an error, send an email: [email protected] Read the full of studies.

search operator

a 360 . force It maintains a collection of thousands of surveys using known methodologies on which the source of the information could have been verified. Studies have been conducted since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian Internet.

The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the search aggregator click here.

The journalist began collecting research information Fernando RodriguezEditor in Chief 360 . forceon its website, in 2000. To access the old page containing the surveys, click here.