Brazilian standard of living It should be practically stagnant For the next 40 years, according to estimates from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released on Tuesday (19).
From 2030 to 2060, there should be a 0.2% decrease in the share of the active population in the Brazilian labor market. The potential occupancy rate in Brazil is also expected to decline by 0.1% in the same period.
This result is no worse than in India (-0.6%), but it is practically related to the performance of Argentina and China during the evaluation period.
In large emerging economies such as Brazil, relatively weak productivity means a much slower convergence process with living standards in the United States, the document says.
According to the entity, the Potential growth of gross domestic product (GDP) The ratio in Brazil should be 1.1% per year in the decade from 2020 to 2030, and 1.4% between 2030 and 2060.
The OECD also estimates that real GDP growth for the G20 and G20 countries is expected to halve after Covid: from about 3% to 1.5% in 2060.
WHO stresses the importance of structural reforms to improve the financial scenario of these countries after the health crisis.
The OECD also points to population aging as a factor that increases pressure on government budgets.
In an attempt to reduce this effect, the organization takes into account the importance of structural changes in pension systems and in the labor market.
According to the entity, in Brazil, the pension system should be reformed Generous reduction of benefits over time. “Some countries have introduced access rules or other mechanisms into their public pensions that may mean a decrease in average benefit rates over time,” says the OECD.
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