Direct Treasury: Post CPI fixed rate bonds offer up to 11.87% p.a.

Government bond prices are mostly stable Thursday afternoon (13), after the strong volatility seen earlier in the day. In fixed-price securities, only short-term securities rose by 5 basis points. In inflation-related papers, all prices run steadily.

Igor Kavaca, director of Warren Asset Management, explains that the session started with strong volatility due to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 0.4% in September in a monthly comparison, according to data released today by the US Department of Labor. The Refinitiv consensus forecast a 0.2% increase from August.

Cores — measures that try to mitigate the impact of the more volatile elements — also came up in the above estimates: 0.6% in the monthly comparison and 6.6% in the annual comparison, compared to expectations of 0.5% and 6.5%, respectively.

Live Treasury trading was suspended for about an hour earlier in the day due to sharp swings in prices and rates. When this happens, investors can only buy or sell securities like a smart treasury.

However, Kavaca notes that there is a reversal in the upward movement after the advance of the international and Brazilian stock markets. “The move is an adjustment in relation to the rallies seen at the start of the week, with the market pricing in a negative September Consumer Price Index (IPCA), lower than expected,” it highlights.

According to Kavaka, persistent inflation remains constant due to the energy crisis in Europe, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the recovery in oil prices.

Within the direct treasury, the 2025 fixed-rate treasury offered only high rates. At 3:24 p.m., public bonds offered an annualized return of 11.68%, up from the 11.63% seen on Tuesday (11).

Treasury fixed rates 2029 and fixed rates 2033 remained stable, with annual returns of 11.87%.

In inflation-linked bonds, rates were also stable. The biggest real gain recorded in this session was 5.79%, from IPCA + 2055 Treasury.

Check prices and rates for public securities available for purchase from Treasury Direct on Thursday afternoon (13):

United States and goods

Highlight the external landscape in CPI figures. The inflation For the consumer it was 8.2% cumulative in 12 months. The Refinitiv consensus indicated an 8.1% increase in 12 months.

The data shows persistent inflation in the country. Yesterday, the Ministry of Labor indicated that the Producer Price Index (PPI) It rose 0.4% in September compared to August and 8.5% compared to September 2021, both of which exceeded market expectations.

According to the ministry, increases in housing, food and health care rates have made the largest contribution to the overall index. These gains were partially offset by a 4.9% drop in the gasoline index.

On the external scene as well, the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) last week to cut barrel production raised prices and Could push the global economy into recessionthe International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday (13).

The agency warned that “the continued deterioration of the economy and the rise in prices caused by the OPEC + plan to cut supplies are weakening global demand for oil.”

The day before, OPEC revised its file down The expected increase in global demand for oil in 2022From 3.1 million barrels per day to 2.6 million barrels per day. At the time, the organization also lowered its forecast for an increase in oil supply from producers outside the group in 2022, from 2.1 million barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day.

CBDs are back in decline after the election

Survey conducted by Quantum Finance, a financial market solutions company, on request Infomoney, showed that the average rate provided by the China Development Bank related to inflation due in 24 months was 6.28% annually plus the IPCA in recent days. In the previous survey conducted between September 12 and 27, the average real return was even higher, at 6.91%. The percentages are gross, i.e. they do not deduct income tax (IR).

Among the inflation-related papers, there was also a reduction in the maximum yield, focusing on the maturity of external debt securities in 12 months. In the previous survey, BTG Pactual’s CDB offered a maximum real interest rate of 9.64% per annum, plus correction by the IPCA; Now, the rate offered by the same issuer is 9.04% per annum.

Fixed rate papers also saw lower rates between the last survey and the current survey. The decline was most pronounced among CDBs maturing in 24 months, where the average return increased from 12.48% to 12.02% annually. Check all the details In this regard.

Support from religious and electoral polls

In the political realm, investors are watching a new round of polling. The day before (12), the PoderData poll showed stability in the second round of the presidential election, with former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva receiving 48% of voting intentions, while re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PL) had 44%, both It maintained the same levels as the poll released last week.

According to the survey, the total of null and void votes is 6% and the undecided vote is 2%, which is also maintenance compared to the previous survey.

With the correct voting criterion, which excludes whites, null and undecided votes, Lula appears 52% to Bolsonaro’s 48%, the same scenario in last week’s poll. PoderData listened to 5,000 people by phone between October 9 and 11. The poll’s margin of error increases or decreases by 1.5 percentage points.

Also on the political scene, yesterday (12) President of the Republic and candidate for re-election Jair Bolsonaro (PL) launched a campaign in the two states with the largest number of voters in the country: São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

In the morning, the candidate participated in the opening of an evangelical church in Minas Gerais, the second largest electoral complex in the country. In the early afternoon, Bolsonaro moved to Aparecida, in the interior of São Paulo, where thousands of Catholic faithful paid homage to Brazil’s patron saint, Nossa Senhora Aparecida.

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