- President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party, has already declared that he is against the company’s price parity policy and that he intends to change it in his government.
- The future head of state also stated that he should resume investment in refineries
- The announced measures, if achieved, can reduce profits and distribute profits to investors.
in Procedures Give Petrobras (PETR4/PETR3) has gained prominence in portfolios due to the high value of profits paid to Investors Throughout this year. TradeMap data sent directly to a file e-Investorshows that the oil company paid a total of 173.4 billion Brazilian reais between January and September of this year to its shareholders.
The amount is 2.739% higher than the total amount paid to shareholders in 2012. However, bonuses to investors this year should not be limited to this “strong” figure. Last week, the company agreed to pay a dividend of R$43.7 billion to be paid during the quarter. With the new value, the return on investors in 2022 will reach a total profit volume of R$217 billion, according to TradeMap.
The results, according to analysts, are the “fruits” of the company’s good performance in recent years. The problem is that there is a fear in the state-owned high-yield market that it will not continue in the next market Government🇧🇷
Analysts’ perception depends on the president-elect’s promises Luiz Inacio Lula da SilvaFrom PT to the company. The Labor Party made it clear in its government plan that it intends to change the pricing policy of Petrobras, which is established on the basis of the price of oil on the international market.
The change may increase the costs of the SOE because the company will have to subsidize a portion of the fuel sold to refineries. The argument Lula used for the adjustment is that Brazilians should not be subject to increases in fuel prices based on fluctuations in the the shop external.
PL President Jair Bolsonaro has also taken a stand against the company’s pricing policy, adopted since 2016. Throughout this year, Bolsonaro has criticized the company’s adjustments to fuel prices several times. Government discontent has led to the resignation of three presidents in less than two years and affected the company’s share price. See details in this Reportage.
However, changing Petrobras’ international parity price (PPI) is not such a simple process, which can bring relief to investors, at least in the short term. According to Giovanna Gamba, an attorney at Schiefler Advocacia, members of the company’s board of directors will need to approve the change required by the union and justify the reasons for the change.
“What the government can do is change Petrobras’ board of directors by appointing new members, and it can negotiate with other shareholders to change new directive,” he says. “Therefore, it is possible that Petrobras will choose the interest of the consumer, but the cost will need to be considered and compensation for the minority shareholder (for potential damages),” he says.
The State-Owned Companies Act also prevents the Federation from using the company for other purposes that may harm profits and the distribution of dividends. If the interest of the majority of shareholders harms other investors, the state-owned company will have an obligation to compensate for losses arising from certain decisions.
Even with that guarantee, Bruno Barbosa, co-founder of Nord Research, is pessimistic when considering measures to protect minority shareholders from potential government interference. Although he recognizes that there is a legal apparatus that makes it difficult for Planalto to act more effectively in company decisions, he maintains that the government can join forces to change the current legislation.
“Bolsonaro fired three presidents because he wanted the company to subsidize the price of fuel,” he says. “I never put my hands on fire in Brasilia. When Brasilia wants to do something, it does it with frightening speed.”
Another point of alert among investors is the resumption of investment in refineries. If the president-elect’s promises come true, the actions could affect the profits of the state-owned company and even the distribution of dividends to shareholders.
But for Pedro Marquez, a variable income specialist at EWZ Capital, the doubts that arise around Petrobras should not derail the state-owned company’s good performance. “If the company’s profit were cut in half, we would still have a dividend of 15%-20%, which is a solid ratio,” he says.
The political risks involved in Petrobras should be on the radar before they position themselves as an asset. Analysis is important to see if the risk can be interesting to each investor’s investment portfolio goals.
For Bruce, it does not make sense to invest in a company in which the majority of shareholders can adopt measures that could affect the company’s profits. “Given the other much better opportunities available on the exchange that don’t involve political risks, I see no reason to buy Petrobras,” he says.
Nord’s co-founder thinks stocks such as PetroRio (PRIO3), Petroreconcavo (RECV3) and 3R Petroleum are more interesting alternatives. “These three companies are growing in volume and generating a lot of cash,” he says.
XP, on the other hand, recommends buying Petrobras shares (PETR4) at a target price of R$35.50, analyzing the high quality of the assets and low potential to offer “banks of cash” in the same previous ratios. Years. On the other hand, the broker realizes that the political risks have increased.
Ativa Investimentos has revised its recommendation for the company. Last Friday (4), the broker lowered the company’s target price from R$46 to R$35 and changed its buy recommendation to Neutral.
“We believe such a price reduction will continue until the market becomes more clear about the company’s next steps,” the brokerage said in a report.
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