February 6, 2023
Ibovespa Futuro continues to show significant increase after US payroll and reversal of progress in commodities

Ibovespa Futuro stock rose in the last November trading session, focusing on the General Electricity Corporation and the formation of the government

Ibovespa Futuro is running higher in first trading this Wednesday (30), following the performance of international markets, as investors await a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who may provide more information on the future of monetary tightening in the country.

At 9:13 am (Brasilia time), the December Ibovespa contract was up 0.48%, at 112,150 points.

on the economic radar in Brazil, The vacancy rate was 8.3% and the underutilization rate was 19.5% in the current quarter ending in Octoberbetter than the Refinitiv consensus forecast of 8.5%.

National political news is also on the radar. According to the radio information, despite the signals of the elected president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (eng) that indicate Fernando Haddad As a strong man to lead the economic team in the future government, still members of the Labor Party Working behind the scenes with other arrangements for the tripartite ministries to be formed from 2023 onwards.

Economist Andre Lara Resende, Bradesco Chairman Luis Carlos Trabuco, and President of the Federation of São Paulo State Industries (Fiesp) Jose Gómez also list them as possible members of the economic composition. José has been moved to take over the new Ministry of Industry, but he also has a name mentioned for the treasury.

The week is also progressing in the negotiations on the transition to the PEC: the text reached 27 signatures needed yesterday to start processing in the Senate and has been sent to the CCJ, but the rector of the university, Davi Alcolumbre, does not intend to hold sessions this week – either time to negotiate with the new government and amend a text already in line with the House of Representatives. Rodrigo Pacheco said the proposal should be analyzed with “urgency and priority” by senators next week.

Continue after the announcement

In the United States, futures indicators are operating slightly higher in the last trading session of November, while market agents are waiting for many economic data and the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman, in search of clues about the direction of the largest economy in the world.

The market expects to indicate that the pace of monetary tightening will ease to 0.50 percentage point (pp) in December after four increases of 0.75 point, but this should not be a signal that the cycle is coming to an end. The US central bank chief is likely to stress that there is still more to be done in combating inflation, in line with what other Fed officials have said.

Still on the international agenda, also highlights are the third quarter GDP and the release of the USA Private Employment Survey (ADP).

This morning, Dow futures were up 0.09%, S&P futures were up 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.42%.

dollar

The trading dollar is running 0.51% lower, quoted at R$5.260 for buying and R$5.261 for selling, continuing the downward trend, as the transitional PEC advances in the National Congress. December dollar futures fell 0.26% to R$5.260.

The DXY index, which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of currencies, is running lower, ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, while optimism about a possible easing of Covid restrictions in China put it on track for its biggest monthly loss. in over 20 years.

In the interest rate market, futures contracts are operating at low levels. DIF23 (January to 2023) runs steady at 13.69%; DIF25, -0.02 pg, to 13.14%; DIF27, -0.03 p.m., to 12.82%; and DIF29, -0.02 pg, to 12.83%.

Continue after the announcement

the outside

European markets traded higher on Wednesday as investors across the region monitored the latest eurozone inflation data for November.

On the economic side, British business confidence fell to its lowest level since February 2021 and below the long-term average.

Inflation data is also highlighted. Eurozone inflation rose 10% year-on-year in November. The expectation, according to the Refinitiv consensus, was higher at 10.4% in November, slowing from 10.6% in October.

Asia

Most Asian markets closed higher, as China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in November fell short of expectations, hitting the lowest level since April.

The day before, Chinese health authorities announced measures to increase vaccination among the elderly, an indicator considered important for reopening the economy. When asked if the recent unrest would lead to a change in their Covid Zero policy, they said they were watching the virus closely.

After rising for four consecutive sessions and reaching a 23-week highSupported by measures taken by China to ramp up support for struggling real estate developers, iron ore prices in China are operating at a slightly lower level.