August 11, 2022
Omicron chart shows strong rise: Experts see risks but point to lower vaccinations in South Africa |  the health

Omicron chart shows strong rise: Experts see risks but point to lower vaccinations in South Africa | the health

A graph from the Financial Times comparing the transmission speed of the omicron variable with others already known indicates the heyday of this new version of SARS Cove 2 In cases of Covid-19 recorded in South Africa.

The comparison takes into account the percentage of prevalence of the new variant among cases in the country that, after testing, has undergone genetic sequencing.

The graphic image has gained space on social networks since countries in Europe began restricting flights leaving places where the strain is spread, above all after the World Health Organization (Who is the) It states that the release is considered a “variable of concern”.

But does the graph show that this will be repeated around the world? Does the curve indicate that the new format could stop reopening in many countries, including Brazil?

Experts heard before g 1 Point out two pieces of information relevant to reading the graph:

  • It shows that the transmission rate of the variant is higher than that of others, including the already well-known, such as Delta;
  • But, at the same time, the data refer exclusively to South Africa, where the percentage of vaccinated people is low.

Therefore, the analysis cannot be extrapolated and said that the same will be repeated in countries with different vaccination rates and in people who have already contracted Covid-19.

Currently, in South Africa there are 14.2 million people with a full vaccination schedule. The number equates to 24% of the country’s population of 59 million.

Climbing like a rocket

Analyzing the graph, epidemiologist Pedro Halal said the curves are worrying, even though they occur in a country with an under-vaccinated country.

“This is the pollution curve in a population that hasn’t been as well immunized as the one in South Africa. Maybe in a population that has been more pollinated, the surrogate won’t be able to make that curve that looks like a missile launch. But, frankly, it’s really worrying – Pedro Hilal, epidemiologist

Pedro Hilal on the new alternative: “It appears to be more transferable”

Ethel Maciel, a professor at Joffs University and an epidemiologist, has a similar opinion.

She explained that the graph only shows the baud rate, which appears to be much higher than other variables such as delta.

“The time it took for it to become dominant in South Africa was faster. So, it means that it can pass on to more people. But we have to remember that in this place where it does move, there is a small percentage of people that get vaccinated which is why the organization Global health is of concern because it appears to be more transmissible, but we do not yet know its effect on disease severity.”

Anvisa’s former boss, Gonzalo Vecina, summarizes it in a chronological analysis. How quickly did it show itself in Africa?

“Basically what the curves are saying is: that Omicron did in 25 days what the others did in 100 days. What does that say? That it has a logarithmic ability to infect and create new cases. It is much faster than beta and delta,” Vesina said.

Professor Tulio de Oliveira, director of the South African Epidemiological Response and Innovation Center, is one of the researchers who has followed the increase in the prevalence of the new type among cases in the country.

“This new variant, B.1.1.529, appears to be spreading very quickly! In less than two weeks, it is overshadowing all infections after the devastating delta wave in South Africa,” Tulio said, noting that the new variant, (in the chart below at blue) is already 75% of the last genome sequenced.

“Soon you will reach 100%,” the researcher said.

Graphic used by researcher Túlio de Oliveira to promote the circulation of B.1.1.529 in South Africa – Image: Reproduction/Twitter

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