Under the new policy, the company will have to distribute a minimum cash dividend of $4 billion annually if oil Brent above $40 a barrel, leaving the door open for additional payments.
“On a preliminary calculation, we see a potential increase of about 10% over the current target price with the incorporation of the new business plan,” he explains crop The report is sent to the clients.
The bank has a buy recommendation for the notes, with a target price of R$38.
In addition to the $4 billion, the new policy includes:
- equal payments for both classes of shares;
- 60% of operating cash flow minus investments (now including bidding on bonus payments) when total debt is less than $65 billion and there is positive cumulative earnings;
- Extraordinary profits
- Payment is independent of the level of indebtedness, as long as the company’s financial sustainability is maintained.
According to Safra’s calculations, the minimum dividend is around $0.31 per share ($0.61/ADR), with a 6% return at current prices.
to me Investments nowThe annual revenue to be paid by the company adds up to a return of $13 billion (about 20%), “but could be more if our long-term assumption of Brent price is achieved at $60 per barrel compared to the company’s $55 per barrel.” .
“The plan reinforced our view that we are likely to see an extraordinary dividend this year,” the broker says.
Production for the coming years
Petrobras also plans to increase investments, while maintaining its focus on deep and very deep water fields, such as in before it – which is supposed to represent 79% of the total production by the end of 2026.
The updated production estimates take into account the roll-out of up to 15 new platforms over the next five years.
Despite this, the BTG Highlights that production came in with a touch of disappointment, falling 10% more than expected. In pre-salt, forecasts are that “growth in these fields will come at a slightly slower pace than we expected.”
Agora approved the strategic plan, saying that the document “is very discreet, demonstrating once again the strength of pre-salt long-cycle assets that allow a strong return to shareholders, even after significant investments in exploration, development and production.”
Petrobras wants to be greener
The oil company also has plans to reduce its carbon footprint. According to the text, US$1.8 billion has been allocated to achieve this goal, focusing on carbon dioxide separation, a methane detection system, the creation of a decarbonization fund, and the development of green diesel, among other points.
The long-term goal is to become carbon neutral (scopes 1 and 2) as you work to diversify your portfolio.
For BTG, the message of “efficient and rational” capital allocation remains, “even after successfully correcting balance sheet concerns a few years ago.”
However, the bank said it was skeptical about achieving the goals. “They can change dramatically, depending on who gets to control the board,” he said.
“Entrepreneur. Music enthusiast. Lifelong communicator. General coffee aficionado. Internet scholar.”