June 26, 2022
The US future is flatter than inflation;  Oil is rising in China and OPEC and today with more hotspots

US index futures are flat ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes; Hot topics in the market today

New York futures indexes are running near stability, while European stocks are rallying on Wednesday morning (25th), ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The draft should show a discussion about neutral interest rates and whether or not the authority should move interest rates to a restricted area.

Already Asian markets closed between losses and gains. On the radar, the New Zealand central bank announced another rate hike.

US investors continue to analyze corporate results this week to see how companies are dealing with inflationary pressures. Dick’s Sporting Goods is expected to release its numbers on Wednesday before the opening. Snowflake and Nvidia are expected to release quarterly reports after the bell.

On the economic front, traders are also looking for the latest reports on weekly mortgage orders and durable goods orders before the markets open.

In Brazil, the project that lowers the ICMS rate to 17% will be voted on today, which could lead to bearish revisions in inflation, after IPCA-15 concerns, above expectations, Redraw bets To extend monetary tightening with higher Cilic.

In the corporate sphere, Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) confirms a decrease in Bolivian natural gas and says it will take appropriate measures. Buy Grupo Big from Carrefour Brasil (CRFB3) at a regular session of the CADE (Administrative Council for Economic Defense) this Wednesday (25).

Check out more highlights:

1. Global Scholarships

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US futures traded near stability on Wednesday, after sharp losses incurred on Tuesday on Nasdaq, after a warning of slowing growth from social media company Snap affected the technology index.

Snap’s share price fell 43% during the regular session after the company said it would lose its dividend and revenue guidance.

Investors are still waiting for clues from the latest FOMC meeting minutes.

Rafael Bostic (Atlanta Federal Reserve), one of the most pessimistic members of the Fed and a non-voter this year, issued a warning that “as we rapidly return monetary policy to a more neutral stance to bring inflation closer to the 2% target, I intend to proceed with intent and without “We have seen during the pandemic that events and changes in the market can happen quickly,” he added. US data such as the PMI preview and new home sales heightened fears of a slowdown in the economy.

Watch the performance of futures markets:

  • Dow Jones Contracts (USA), +0.04%
  • S&P 500 futures contract (US), +0.10%
  • Nasdaq Future (US), +0.19%

Asia

Asian markets closed mixed between higher interest rates in New Zealand and the prospect of Chinese companies being written off in the US.

Alibaba shares fell 1.5%, while JD.com and Baidu fell 1.49% and 1.53%, respectively.

The losses came after a US Securities and Exchange Commission official said Tuesday that “time is running out” in negotiations between US and Chinese officials over audit inspections. Baidu and JD.com are among the Chinese companies that the Securities and Exchange Commission has placed on a list of companies facing potential delistings in the United States.

New Zealand’s central bank announced on Wednesday its decision to raise its official interest rate by 50 basis points to 2%, a decision most economists polled by Reuters had expected.

  • Shanghai SE (China) + 1.19%
  • Nikkei (Japan), -0.26%
  • Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +0.29%
  • Kospi (South Korea), +0.44%

Europe

European markets were in recovery on Wednesday as global markets attempted to recover from a broad-based decline in the previous trading session.

The rally comes after markets pulled back on Tuesday, following negative global sentiment as US markets struggled to sustain recovery after weeks of losses.

On the data front, German GDP grew 0.2% in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Statistics Office said Wednesday, as Europe’s largest economy narrowly avoided a recession due to heavy investment in construction and machinery.

  • FTSE 100 (UK), +0.46%
  • Dax (Germany), +0.33%
  • CAC 40 (France), +0.13%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.59%

goods

Oil prices are rising in today’s session (25), driven by the lack of supply and the possibility of increased demand from the upcoming beginning of the summer season in the United States, the largest consumer of oil in the world.

  • West Texas Intermediate crude, +0.68%, at $106.08 a barrel
  • Brent crude rose 1.09% to $ 108.76 a barrel
  • Iron ore traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange rose 0.35% to 852.00 yuan, equivalent to $127.67.

Bitcoin

  • Bitcoin, +2.19% at $29830.80 (24 hours ago)

2. Schedule

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday afternoon (25). Bank of America predicts: “The FOMC meeting minutes should show a discussion about neutral rates and whether or not the authority should move interest rates into a restricted territory.”

Brazil

8:00 am: FGV publishes consumer survey

9:30 am: Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, participated in a symposium at the World Economic Forum in Davos

12 noon: Electoral poll – PoderData

2:30 pm: Weekly FX Stream

17:00: Bolsonaro announces new measures for the Brazilian Entrepreneur Credit Program

United States of America

9:30 am: Change in durable goods orders

11:30 am: Weekly Oil Inventories Change – EIA – Refinitiv forecasts a drop of 690,000 barrels

1:15 p.m.: Lyle Brainard, Fed Vice President, speaks at the 2022 commencement ceremony at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies

15:00: FOMC meeting minutes

3. The Chamber maintains the minimum wage for 2022 at R$1,212

The House of Representatives on Tuesday approved temporary measure 1091/21, which set the value of 1,212 Brazilian reals for the minimum wage in 2022. The Senate is analyzing the matter.

The new value takes into account the monetary correction by the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) from January to November 2021 and the inflation forecast for December 2021, estimated by the Technical Department of the Ministry of Economy.

In total, the increase will be 10.18% compared to the previous amount, which was R$1,100.

Bolsonaro is appealing the decision that raised the news of the crime against Moraes

President Jair Bolsonaro appealed the decision of Minister Dias Toffoli, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), who brought news of the crime against also Minister of the Court Alexandre de Moraes, and demanded that the measure be referred to the plenary.

In the preliminary appeal filed, Bolsonaro’s attorney, Eduardo Magalhaes, claimed that before news of the crime was suspended, Toffoli should have waited for the Public Prosecutor’s Office (PGR) to announce himself. The lawyer then asks Toffoli to review his decision or send the crime report for analysis by the other ministers in the courtroom.

The Minister decided to save them because he considered that there were no items to work and only then sent them to the PGR, already by his decision.

Citizenship agrees to support Tebet as the only third-class candidate

Cidadania President Roberto Freire recently announced that the party’s CEO had unanimously agreed to support Simon Tibet’s (MDB) presidential bid, O Globo reports.

MP who redrafts civil aviation legislation goes to presidential punishment

The Chamber on Tuesday concluded a vote on the Free Flight Interim Measure (MP), which has rewritten legislation on civil aviation. The measure had already been voted on by the House of Representatives, but it had to undergo a new analysis after the changes proposed by the Senate. It goes into a presidential sanction.

The authorized representative terminates the difference between general air services (ordinary commercial transportation) and special services (without pay and in favor of the operator), as well as changing the values ​​and types of actions subject to a fee by Anac.

The text also specifies that airlines are prohibited from charging any kind of fee, on domestic flights, for checked baggage up to 23 kg, and on international flights, for checked baggage up to 30 kg.

ICMS Rating

The House of Representatives, in an extraordinary session at 1:55 p.m. on Wednesday, may analyze a bill that takes into account essential goods and services related to fuel, electricity, communications, and public transportation, and prohibits the application of tax rates equal to those of non-essential listed products that have a maximum rate for ICMS (State tax) is 17%.

4. Covid

Last Tuesday (24), Brazil recorded 228 deaths and 32,998 cases of coronavirus within 24 hours, according to information received from the Media Union, at 8 pm.

The 7-day moving average for Covid deaths in Brazil is 97, down 9% compared to the 14-day level before that.

The seven-day moving average of new cases was 15,425, which is a 6% decrease from the level 14 days ago.

The number of people fully vaccinated against Covid in Brazil has reached 16,541,8841, equivalent to 77% of the population.

A total of 178,216,465 people received at least the first dose of vaccines, representing 82.96% of the population.

A booster dose was administered to 90,654,221 people, or 42.2% of the population.

5. Corporate radar

Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4)

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) confirmed this Tuesday (24) the cut in Bolivian natural gas supplies and stated that it would take appropriate measures to honor the contract.

On a note, Petrobras stated that it received, on average, about 14 million m3/day from YPFB in May. The volume is 30% less than 20 million cubic meters of the adjustment concluded with the Bolivian state-owned company in March 2020.

Carrefour Brazil (CRFB3)

The purchase of Grupo Big by Carrefour Brasil (CRFB3) was approved by the company’s shareholders at an Extraordinary General Meeting (AGE) last week. The next step for the deal will be taken next Wednesday (25), when the deal will be evaluated in a regular session of the CADE (Administrative Council for Economic Defense).

The large group purchase proposal includes cash payment of R$5.25 billion to existing retailer watchers, private equity fund Advent International and Walmart; The remaining 30% of the capital is incorporated by Carrefour Brazil.

(with Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)

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