Soybean markets in Brazil were virtually shut down on Thursday (24th). As the Chicago Stock Exchange was closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday and the day of Brazil’s first game in the Qatar Cup, the numbers moved almost exclusively against the dollar — which lost more than 1% against the real. -, in premiums in the national market – almost not moving due to Chicago’s absence – and in news from China.
The Asian country has reported a record number of new cases of Covid-19, with more than 30,000 infections, the first recorded deaths since May and fears persist over consumption. “It disrupts the market. More closures, more problems at the ports, and it could even be negative for tomorrow’s trading session, which will be half the trading session,” explains Vlamir Brandalizze, market consultant at Brandalizze Consulting.
This Friday (25th) business should continue with fear as most CBOT operators usually fix this holiday, leaving the market empty.
Eduardo Vanin, market analyst at Agriinvest Commodities, said China has already started to take a step back from easing Covid control measures, returning to severity, giving the market some important and worrying signs. “The Lunar New Year holiday will not happen again, as happened in the last three years, and now there is a lot of meat to enter (the market)”, he says. Pork futures on the Dalian stock exchange have already hit a three-week low.
If China is the concern on the demand side, Brazil is the focus on the supply side. Planting here develops quickly, but there are points of concern due to climatic disturbances. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the harvest, estimates point to another year of record production, which, if confirmed, should weigh on prices.
So, this Thursday, the Brazilian soy market received only nominal signs, yet according to Vladimir Brandalis, if we calculate yesterday’s Chicago with today’s dollar, the ports will test a maximum of R$ 185.00, “which is almost R$ 10.00. Less per bag compared to a week ago” .
In the over-the-counter market, business opened earlier, but there was little progress. If Chicago pulls back again in this Friday’s session, it could once again press notes on the counter in various parts of Brazil.
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